2023-11-24 04:11:13
New York (AFP) – The hunt for “Black Friday” bargains opens on Friday, particularly in the United States, and experts expect significant reductions on targeted products in an economic environment that is better than expected but plagued by uncertainties.
For several weeks now, the fever linked to this traditional day of promotions has gripped American windows and online stores. Email boxes are saturated with requests.
Many brands are offering “Black Friday” discounts earlier and earlier, especially this year, from October.
“Retailers are worried. They are trying to capture consumer spending early to make sure they get it,” notes Randy Allen, professor of management at Cornell University.
According to Adobe Analytics, an e-commerce specialist, internet sales reached $76.8 billion in October, an increase of 5.9% year-on-year and 13.6% compared to September.
“Buying in advance is a trend we have seen for several years and, this year, the offers and promotions from October had a particular resonance,” comments Phil Rist, of Prosper Insights and Analytics.
But the “biggest discounts are expected for +Black Friday+ and +Cyber Monday+” on Monday, which should generate 9.6 billion and 12 billion for e-commerce respectively, specifies Adobe Analytics.
In total, “Cyberweek” – which extends from Thanksgiving Thursday on November 23 to the following Monday – should bring in 37.2 billion on the internet (+5.4%).
According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), more than 182 million people are expected to shop in stores and online during Cyberweek. This is almost 16 million more than in 2022 and a record since monitoring began in 2017.
It did not make an amount forecast for this period but anticipates sales for the holiday season (November-December) of up to 966.6 billion (+4%).
Useful shopping
The biggest promotions could go up to -35% on average, i.e. a level higher than 2021 and 2022, according to Adobe Analytics, which predicts in particular -30% for electronics and -22% for televisions.
The “Black Friday” promotion is increasingly being exported © Emmanuel DUNAND / AFP/Archives
Purchases via mobile devices are expected to overtake those on computers for the first time, she said.
Many consumers limit themselves to shopping for end-of-year gifts: clothing, gift cards, toys, books, video games, hygiene and beauty products, according to the NRF.
Among the bestsellers are Lego, Hot Wheels, dolls, in particular Barbie after the summer release of the film of the same name, game consoles including Meta Quest 3 virtual reality glasses, the latest iPhone, e-readers, etc. .
More and more Americans are using the “Buy now, Pay later” option, which is expected to generate 17 billion (+16.9% over one year) on the internet, to spread their spending even further.
“Customers will look for the items they really want and need rather than buying a lot of things on impulse,” says Neil Saunders, director at GlobalData. “Which is not necessarily good for traders.”
Pression
For their part, “the brands are cautiously making targeted discounts rather than vast all-out promotions,” he adds.
More than 182 million people are expected to make purchases during “Cyberweek” in the United States © SAUL LOEB / AFP
Their objective is above all to sell off their stocks, according to analysts.
The much-anticipated recession has not materialized and the American consumer has shown itself to be particularly “resilient”, underline several experts, but macroeconomic uncertainties call for caution.
Inflation is slowed but not to the level desired by the American Central Bank (Fed), which has paused since July in raising key rates, to the highest level in twenty-two years.
Savings accumulated during the pandemic have melted, even falling below pre-Covid levels, the moratorium on student loan repayments no longer exists and credit card debt is reaching new heights, as are their interest rates. which flirt with 20%.
On the positive side: the unemployment rate remains stable at historically low levels.
“Employment has been the backbone of the American economy since the start of the year,” underlines Zachary Warring, analyst at CFRA Research.
“Black Friday” has been exported, notably to France and the United Kingdom where Hargreaves Lansdown expects a “difficult” edition in a “super difficult” environment.
© 2023 AFP
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