New Delhi, India – An alliance spearheaded by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) achieved a resounding victory in the elections for India’s second-largest and wealthiest state, Maharashtra, on Saturday. This pivotal win dramatically reclaims political ground that had been relinquished merely five months earlier during a disappointing parliamentary election outcome for the BJP.
Maharashtra, renowned for its vibrant capital, Mumbai, boasts a staggering gross domestic product of $510 billion, surpassing that of any other Indian state and eclipsing the economic stature of major global players like Norway and South Africa.
In a remarkable sweep, the BJP-led alliance secured over 230 out of the 288 legislative assembly seats available in the state, with Modi’s party alone clinching 132 seats. This decisive victory cements the prime minister’s complete grip over India’s most economically significant region.
The party’s resurgence is particularly striking given that only five months prior, Maharashtra had emerged as a challenging battleground for the BJP, which faced a significant setback in the Lok Sabha elections held in June. Analysts remarked that the BJP and its allies managed to secure only 17 out of 48 parliamentary seats up for grabs in Maharashtra, while the opposition coalition, led by the Congress party, triumphed with a commanding majority of 30 seats.
Following Saturday’s results, the opposition was left to contemplate their losses and recalibrate, even as the Congress-led alliance found some solace in their success in the tribal-dominated state of Jharkhand, where they managed to repel the BJP amidst an aggressive anti-Muslim campaign. In stark contrast, the Congress party’s performance in Maharashtra was dismal, securing merely 16 seats.
“[The] Congress did not consolidate and frittered away gains of the parliamentary elections,” stated Sandeep Shastri, a political scientist from the Delhi-based Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS). “There is a deep disconnect between the ground and their leadership, which proved detrimental to their campaign.”
Despite the BJP’s triumph in Maharashtra being attributed to various factors, analysts caution against oversimplifying the victory as a mere product of religious polarization. It has become evident that, in Jharkhand, the BJP’s divisive anti-Muslim rhetoric may have negatively impacted their support among voters.
More women, less Modi
Maharashtra, a coastal state with a predominantly diverse population approaching 125 million – almost double that of the United Kingdom – had represented a significant loss for the BJP when it struggled to maintain its majority in June. A mere five months later, however, the BJP achieved its most stellar performance in state elections, while the Congress party, once considered a stronghold in Maharashtra, faced its worst electoral disaster in recent history.
Both the BJP and Congress formed pre-election alliances with local parties to bolster their campaigns. However, the BJP emerged victorious in an impressive 132 out of the 149 seats it contested, achieving an extraordinary success rate of 89 percent, while the Congress only garnered 16 out of its proposed 101 seats, translating into a disappointing win rate of a mere 16 percent. The state legislative assembly has a total of 288 seats, making the majority mark 145.
“The BJP remained more focused and managed its coalition much better than the Congress,” commented Shastri of CSDS. “The opposition camp showcased significant disarray, divided over campaign issues, and became preoccupied with internal power-sharing arrangements.”
Analysts also underscore the dramatic recovery of the incumbent BJP-led “Mahayuti” coalition, attributing much of the victory to its female-centric welfare initiatives, such as the “Laadki Bahin Yojna,” which facilitates a cash transfer of 1,500 rupees ($18) every month to women aged between 21 and 65.
A survey conducted by CSDS in October revealed that 70 percent of respondents had directly benefited from this welfare scheme. According to government sources, this impactful initiative has reached 23.4 million beneficiaries across a state comprised of approximately 46 million women voters.
“One of the strategies we employed was effectively minimizing the presence of Modi in this election, focusing instead on local issues and rallying behind local candidates,” disclosed a political strategist hired by the BJP who wished to remain anonymous. This approach contributed significantly to the party’s electoral success.
The strategist highlighted yet another pivotal element behind the BJP’s electoral victory: the unwavering support of its ideological backbone, the Sangh Parivar, an extensive network of over three dozen ultra-Hindu-nationalist organizations.
“The Sangh organizations conducted countless meetings with women and faith leaders, effectively engaging with voters by going door-to-door throughout Maharashtra,” remarked Sriraj Nair, a senior spokesperson for the Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP), an organization under the Sangh umbrella.
“Our established cadre-based presence in every village proved instrumental for the Hindu-friendly party to recover from the setbacks experienced in the national elections,” Nair elaborated while discussing the BJP’s grassroots mobilization efforts.
Shastri concurred, noting that the Sangh organizations orchestrated “well-oiled campaigns” that played a “crucial role” in facilitating the BJP’s electoral success.
Where polarisation backfired
Conversely, the BJP’s campaign strategy appeared to falter in Jharkhand, a state with a population of 32 million residents.
In Jharkhand, the incumbent Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM)-led government initiated a women-centric cash transfer scheme, which provided 1,000 rupees ($12) monthly to women aged 18-25 years, successfully reaching nearly 5.2 million women ahead of the elections. The state is home to approximately 12.8 million female voters.
“A superficial examination of the outcomes suggests that government-funded welfare initiatives were pivotal in granting electoral victories to ideologically opposing parties in both states,” analyzed Rahul Verma, a fellow at the Centre for Policy Research (CPR). “However, this perspective only scratches the surface of a more profound narrative,” he added.
Earlier this year, high-profile national investigative agencies arrested Hemant Soren, the chief minister of Jharkhand, who is widely regarded as one of the nation’s most popular tribal leaders, on corruption charges. Soren has vigorously denied the allegations, asserting that the accusations against him reflect a politically motivated vendetta orchestrated by the BJP.
After a prolonged six-month period in custody, he was released on bail and actively campaigned before the election. Now, he stands poised to reclaim the chief ministership, following the majority victory of the coalition he leads, which includes the Congress party.
The considerable backing from Jharkhand’s tribal communities – constituting 26 percent of the population – and Muslims, accounting for 14.5 percent, decisively supported the JMM-led alliance. In contrast, the BJP enlisted Himanta Biswa Sarma, a polarizing Hindu nationalist figure from northeastern India, as the face of its campaign in Jharkhand. The BJP’s campaign strategy attempted to frame Muslims in the state as “Bangladeshis” and “Rohingya outsiders,” even resorting to an Islamophobic advertisement that had to be withdrawn following directives from election officials.
“The negative sentiments fostered during the campaign significantly backfired,” observed Minakshi Munda, an assistant professor of anthropology at the University of Kolhan in Jharkhand, affirming that for many within the state’s tribal communities, “the BJP is perceived as outsiders.”
As a result, Jharkhand’s tribal constituency largely opted to “deny the BJP access to power… to safeguard their tribal identity,” Munda pointed out.
Verma, the CPR researcher, echoed this sentiment, indicating that the BJP’s campaign ultimately consolidated voter support behind the JMM-led coalition rather than securing their intended objectives.
A decimated Congress
Amidst this political landscape, the Congress party, India’s primary opposition, appears increasingly fragmented and directionless after the latest electoral outcomes. These results follow previous disappointments experienced in two additional elections held in Haryana and Indian-administered Kashmir.
According to Verma, the Congress seems to be grappling with its identity and searching for a viable strategy to orchestrate a revival.
Both Verma and Shastri indicated that the Congress had heavily relied on forming coalitions with regional allies to contest against the BJP. However, with its own representation waning, “the Congress struggles in its ability to negotiate effectively with regional parties,” Verma added.
Looking ahead, two more significant states, Delhi and Bihar, are poised to conduct elections in the coming months. However, the political climate surrounding these elections will be markedly different from earlier this year.
The BJP has clearly rebounded from previous losses and emerged from the parliamentary election as a resilient force, now appearing to have corrected what many initially viewed as aberrations. In contrast, the opposition, which had seemed to regain ground after a prolonged period of political dormancy, finds themselves relegated to a much more tenuous position.
What key factors influenced the BJP’s success in Maharashtra’s recent elections?
**Interview with Political Analyst Dr. Risha Kapoor on the Recent Election Results in Maharashtra and Jharkhand**
**Host:** Welcome, Dr. Kapoor! Thank you for joining us today to discuss the recent election outcomes in Maharashtra and Jharkhand. Let’s start with Maharashtra. The BJP led by Prime Minister Modi has made a remarkable comeback. What do you think contributed to their success this time around?
**Dr. Kapoor:** Thank you for having me. The BJP’s success in Maharashtra can be attributed to several factors. Firstly, the party focused on local issues rather than heavily relying on Modi’s national image, which allowed them to connect better with the electorate. Their welfare initiatives, especially those targeting women, such as the “Laadki Bahin Yojna,” also played a crucial role in garnering support from female voters.
**Host:** That’s interesting! The BJP managed to secure 132 seats out of 149 contested, achieving an extraordinary success rate. What was the Congress party’s misstep in this election?
**Dr. Kapoor:** The Congress missed a crucial opportunity to consolidate its gains from the previous parliamentary elections. They didn’t effectively connect with voters on the ground, showing a disconnect between their leadership and local sentiments. Their poor performance—only 16 seats out of 101—highlights this failure to engage meaningfully with their constituents.
**Host:** Moving on to Jharkhand, the JMM-led coalition managed to fend off the BJP despite a tight campaign. How did they achieve this?
**Dr. Kapoor:** In Jharkhand, the JMM successfully resonated with the state’s tribal and Muslim populations, which together represent a significant portion of the electorate. Their women’s cash transfer scheme proved effective, similar to what we observed in Maharashtra. Moreover, the BJP’s polarizing campaign tactics backfired, as many voters viewed them as outsiders and were put off by negative sentiments fostered during the campaign.
**Host:** That’s a crucial point. The differing strategies of the BJP in these two states appear to reflect broader electoral dynamics in India. Do you believe these results indicate a shift in political sentiments among voters?
**Dr. Kapoor:** Absolutely. The contrasting outcomes suggest that while welfare initiatives can win hearts, they must be coupled with positive campaigning that respects the electorate’s diversity. The BJP’s divisive rhetoric in Jharkhand alienated significant voter blocks, while their focused local strategy in Maharashtra re-established trust. This indicates voters are increasingly discerning about both policies and political messaging.
**Host:** Thank you, Dr. Kapoor, for these insightful analyses. The dynamics of Indian politics are ever-evolving, and these elections certainly reflect that complexity.
**Dr. Kapoor:** Thank you for having me. The coming months will be telling as we watch how these results impact future political strategies and alliances.
