As he says in “ET” the president of the Hellenic Coffee Association, Anastasios Yagoglou, “Vietnam’s announcement that this year’s harvest will be reduced by at least 5 million bags created a disturbance in the international markets and led to revaluations”. He noted that although the problem of climate change does exist, it is also a very good excuse for producers to increase the prices of their products in order to have a reason to grow coffee and not to switch to other crops.
The market price of the Robusta variety jumped from $2,700 a ton in January 2024 to $4,546 on April 25, only to fall back in May to just below $3,500. However, in July it recorded a new record at 4,634 dollars and since then it has been trading steadily on the London Stock Exchange above 4,300 dollars. Accordingly, the Arabica variety from 163 cents per pound in February 2024 jumped to 246.85 cents in April, then followed a downward path to return in July to 249.1 cents per pound, while yesterday its price on the Stock Exchange of New York moved to 244 cents.
“At the moment we are buying the Arabica variety for approximately 40% more expensively and the Robusta for 65% more,” he points out to “ET”. Mr. Yagoglou, adding that the industry expected a de-escalation of prices from Easter onwards. “Unfortunately, we were denied and we are now on the verge of making very large price increases in the near future, if the situation is not rationalized,” he explains.
In retail
At the moment, Greek coffee is sold in coffee shops at 20-21 euros per kilo, instant coffee at 45-50 euros, ground espresso at 30-40 euros and espresso in capsules – which is a category that is showing great growth in Greek market – reaches 75-80 euros per kilo.
It is estimated that the increases in supermarkets will be similar. Espresso in capsules (pack of 10 pieces) from the 5 euros currently sold will climb to 6 euros, ground espresso (pack of 250 grams) from 5.98 euros will reach 7.18 euros, while Greek coffee (pack 194 grams) from 3.94 can even reach 4.73 euros. Accordingly, the instant coffee (200 grams) from 8.48 euros cannot be ruled out to exceed 10 euros.
If these predictions are confirmed, the already stressed consumption, which is 70% done inside the house and 30% outside, will receive a big blow. In fact, coffee sales volumes will also be limited, as according to market executives, consumption drops by 1% every time prices increase by 10%.
However, after the return of the VAT to 24% on served coffee, catering establishments will also proceed with new increases, noting that if the price of the raw material rises, they will also be forced to pass on any increases to consumers. “We will wait to see how the situation develops and we will decide. If the increases are indeed of the order of 20%, we will also have to increase the prices by 10%-20%”, he says to “ET”. coffee shop owner. For example, the served espresso from 3.3 euros will rise to 3.6-4 euros, the freddo espresso from 3.6 euros will reach 4.2-4.5 euros, while the freddo cappuccino from 3, 8 euros will be available at the price of 4.2-4.6 euros.
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