The Bitcoin market is down a bit during the Friday session, as we continue to see downward pressure. At this point, the $28,000 level below offers a lot of support, so if we break below that level, Bitcoin will likely crash, bringing the market down to the $25,000 level, and maybe even the $20,000 level.
Note that the market is generally moving sideways, as we bounced around the $30,000 level. The recent rally was as high as $32,500, where we had earlier seen selling pressure. If we can break above that limit, I think we can push up a bit, and push this market to the $35,000 level, and maybe even the $37,500 level.
You will only be able to make an argument in support of a trend change after Bitcoin breaks above the $40,000 level, Frankly, I don’t expect that to happen. Cryptocurrencies have been under a lot of pressure over the past several months, as the US dollar strengthened and risk appetite faded. At this point we will likely continue to see a lot of noisy behaviour, but I think any rally at this point will find enough exhaustion that you can start selling again. Bitcoin still has a long way to go before it turns out to show a long-term move higher, and now it seems to me that we may collapse even further.
The $30,000 level is a bit of a magnet, but at this point, it looks like the sellers are starting to gain more traction as we saw the recent rally break out. It was probably a lot of that at the end of the month, which is unusual in normal markets. At this point, it is very unlikely that cryptocurrencies will suddenly turn for any larger movement, as risk appetite is completely destroyed. The market will continue to see a lot of volatility, and volatility will often take the big money out of the market. Until the Fed changes its general tone, I don’t see how Bitcoin could outperform the US dollar any time soon. We’ve been moving sideways for a while, but that’s a lot like the last time we were sideways, right before we collapsed.
The chart was generated by . platform TradingView