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In response to Biden’s speech, Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs also repeated its diplomatic rhetoric over the past two years to thank the US for its “rock solid” support for Taiwan.
U.S. President Joe Biden visited Asia for the first time since taking office, during which his Taiwan-related remarks attracted attention. On the 23rd, some media asked whether the United States is willing to defend Taiwan militarily if there is war in the Taiwan Strait. Biden responded bluntly: “Yes.” Pressed by reporters, he added: “That’s a commitment we made.”
The remarks aroused widespread concern in the international community.
After that, the White House came out to clarify that the US policy towards Taiwan has not changed, and Biden himself reiterated the next day that the policy of “strategic ambiguity” on the Taiwan issue has not changed.
China’s foreign ministry slammed the US for “playing with fire” on the Taiwan issue and stressed that the US has no right to intervene in China’s internal affairs. On Wednesday (25th), the Chinese Ministry of National Defense announced that the Eastern Theater Command of the People’s Liberation Army will organize multi-service military exercises in the sea and airspace surrounding Taiwan, with the purpose of providing a serious warning to the recent “collaboration activities” between the United States and Taiwan.
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On his first trip to Asia, U.S. President Joe Biden said for the second time that the U.S. would defend itself if China took control of Taiwan by force.
Biden made another “slip of the tongue” involving Taiwan?
As early as last August, Biden was asked in an ABC interview on Afghanistan whether Taiwan might count on the United States following the United States withdrew its troops from Afghanistan.
“Our Article 5 (Taiwan Relations Act) makes the sacred promise that if there is an invasion or action once morest our NATO allies, we will respond. So does Japan, so does South Korea, so does Taiwan,” he said. “
The next day, State Department spokesman Ned Price was asked if the administration was considering abandoning the “strategic ambiguity” policy. Price said the government “has no plans” to escalate support for Taiwan beyond existing agreements.
At the time, some observers believed that Biden was a “slip of the tongue.”
Stephen Robert Nagy, a professor at Japan’s International Christian University (ICU) University, told the BBC that Biden’s recent statement was not a deviation from US foreign policy, but a subtly designed statement. “Also, I don’t think the U.S. side has changed in terms of the one-China policy, but Washington is using its creative approach to continue to build relationships with Taiwan in business, technology, education, civil society, etc. In the support of Taiwan’s inclusion in international organizations, It’s also very clear,” he said.
In February last year, Biden said on the US media CNN program that “the US government will inevitably speak out on the Taiwan issue”; in March, US Secretary of State Blinken called Taiwan a “country” at a congressional hearing; A statement that there is no “Taiwan Agreement”.
There are many analysts who believe that Biden’s “slip of the tongue” once more was deliberately arranged by the US side to continue to use the diplomatic method of salami-slicing, continue to make some small actions and measures, and the cumulative results will be huge in the end.
Song Wendi, a lecturer at the Australian National University, analyzed to the BBC that the so-called “slip of the tongue” made by the Biden administration in commenting on Taiwan affairs is actually a diplomatic trick he has used since he came to power, intending to send a clear political signal.
He believes that even if the speech is a “slip of the tongue”, it is a useful “slip of the tongue”, sending a politically useful signal to other countries.
He said that the US’s subsequent clarification statement had the effect of “having it both.” It can be seen from the White House’s immediate clarification of withdrawing Biden’s statement that Biden did not officially change the “strategic vague” policy “publicly”, but sent a strong enough signal to “suggest” that there will be substantial changes in U.S. policy.
Valarie Tan, an analyst at the Mercator Institute for China (Merics), a think tank in Berlin, Germany, also holds a similar opinion. She emailed back to the BBC in Chinese, saying that although some critics criticized Biden’s speech for being piecemeal and incomplete, in the context of Ukraine’s invasion, this speech was a gesture of strategic intent at the right time.
“The goal is to show China what the U.S. can do under certain policies and strategies…. The fact that the U.S. policy of ‘strategic ambiguity’ remains unchanged does not mean that the U.S. will not do anything in the Taiwan war, but more depends on the circumstances under which the US intervenes.”
However, Su Ziyun, a researcher at the National Defense Security Research Institute, an official think tank in Taiwan, believes that Biden’s cross-strait strategy has changed from “strategic vagueness” to “constructive clarity”.
Dr. Su Ziyun said that this is because the dichotomy of “strategic ambiguity” and “strategic clarity” has been unable to adapt to the current situation, that is, it cannot highlight the bottom-line thinking of the US side of “opposing force to change the status quo”, so it can be described as “constructive clarity”.
He said that Biden has repeatedly expressed that he will use military force to defend Taiwan. The “one-China policy” is different from Beijing’s “one-China principle”; the US Chief of Staff, Chairman Milley, and the Indo-Pacific Commander have publicly stated that “the US military is capable of defeating the People’s Liberation Army” and “the US military will ensure that the status quo in Taiwan remains unchanged”, etc. Can be seen as an example of “constructive clarity”.
Deterrence or provocation?
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin criticized the United States on May 24, saying that the United States had “exhausted all efforts” to play with words on the issue of the one-China principle. He criticized the United States for breaking its commitments on the Taiwan issue, falsifying and hollowing out the one-China principle, and instigating support for “Taiwan independence” separatist activities.
Four-party talks with Japan, the United States, Japan, Australia and India kicked off. Two Chinese military aircraft and four Russian military aircraft entered the Air Defense Identification Zone (KADIZ) in eastern South Korea. The Chinese Ministry of National Defense later confirmed that this is a routine joint space strategic patrol conducted by the Chinese and Russian air forces over the Sea of Japan, the East China Sea and other waters.
On May 25, China’s Ministry of National Defense announced that it will organize multi-service joint combat readiness patrols and actual combat drills in the sea and airspace surrounding Taiwan in the near future, making a stern warning to the recent US-Taiwan collusion activities. The press release of the Chinese Ministry of National Defense quoted Shi Yi, a spokesman for the Eastern Theater Command of the People’s Liberation Army, as saying: “The U.S. says one thing and does another on the Taiwan issue, and frequently encourages the ‘Taiwan independence’ forces. The situation has led to a dangerous situation, and there will be serious consequences for itself.”
Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asia Program of the German Marshall Foundation (GMF), a Washington think tank, replied to the BBC in Chinese by email that Biden was trying to strengthen deterrence on the Taiwan issue. “But it seems to me that his statements in Tokyo, and other statements he has made once morest Taiwan since he took office, have created a strategic confusion… This confusion might provoke a Chinese attack on Taiwan. )…and may undermine rather than enhance America’s credibility.”
Taiwan remains low-key
The U.S. and Taiwan have no formal diplomatic relations, but the U.S. sells defense weapons to Taiwan under the U.S. Taiwan Relations Act, which requires the U.S. to provide Taiwan with the ability to defend itself.
Tsai Ing-wen’s government responded to the Biden administration’s Taiwan-related speech, and its attitude remained low-key.
Taiwan’s foreign ministry repeated its usual diplomatic rhetoric over the past two years, saying: “I appreciate the U.S. support for Taiwan’s ‘rock solid’ and Taiwan’s determination to participate in regional peace.”
Taiwan’s response is basically in line with President Tsai Ing-wen’s stance of not being provocative or showing weakness. As far as international politics is concerned, the Republic of China has the responsibility to defend itself, Su Ziyun believes.
Song Wendi emphasized that Biden’s statement can be regarded as a “consolation prize” for Taiwan. Reports have suggested that in the initial stage, Taiwan will be excluded from Biden’s Indo-Pacific economic framework. Opinion polls show that Taiwanese people’s trust in the United States has declined since the Ukraine crisis broke out. He believes that Biden’s statement may help restore Taiwanese confidence in the United States.
Valarie Tan of the Mercator Institute for China (Merics) believes that Biden’s trip to Asia sends a message to China that Asia is once once more the focus of U.S. foreign policy. But she stressed that for the United States to confront and contain China’s ambitions and influence in the region, it needs to come up with a more coherent and concrete approach with its allies in the region, especially on trade and security.
Biden’s trip to Asia is fundamentally regarding re-establishing and restoring U.S. economic leadership and reconnecting with allies in the region. “But the ‘Indo-Pacific Economic Framework’ looks decent, with high-level meetings and like-minded leaders brought together, but when it comes to more substantive outcomes, the visit is a disappointment,” said Valarie Tan.
Some analysts said that the popularity of Biden’s Taiwan-related speech this time almost overshadowed the topic of the “Quartet Talks” held in Tokyo.
