US President Joe Biden has said the US will defend itself if China’s invasion of Taiwan becomes a reality. He made it clear that he would send American troops directly, unlike the Ukrainian War, which remained in indirect support. As the US-China conflict intensifies after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, analysts say that the ‘strategic ambiguity’ strategy on the cross-strait (China-Taiwan) issue may have been abandoned.
○ If Taiwan is attacked, US troops will be sent.
President Biden said in an interview with CBS that was released on the 18th (local time), “If China launches an unprecedented attack on Taiwan, the United States will defend it.” When the host specifically asked, “Is the U.S. military defending differently from the Ukraine war?” President Biden answered, “Yes.” In the case of Ukraine, it was limited to arms support, but it is interpreted to mean that it will send U.S. troops to Taiwan as well.
Successive U.S. governments have maintained strategic ambiguity, not explicitly saying whether or not to directly intervene in China’s invasion of Taiwan. This policy has been maintained for 43 years since the establishment of diplomatic ties between the United States and China in 1979. This is why some analysts say that President Biden’s remarks mean the end of strategic ambiguity. Fang Yucheng, a political science professor at Suzhou University in Taiwan, told German media that “it is a process of adjustment from strategic ambiguity to strategic clarity.” “President Biden has made similar remarks three times before,” the Financial Times (FT) reported.
Another interpretation is that President Biden simply uttered a mistake. President Biden said on the same day that the “one China” policy of Taiwan as part of China was not abolished. “I agree with the promise made a long time ago (one China),” he said. The White House also began to evolve, saying that “US policy toward Taiwan has not changed.”
China strongly objected. China’s foreign ministry spokesman Maoning said at a regular briefing on the 19th that “China has made a strict protest to the US side” and stressed that “China reserves the right to take all necessary measures to respond to activities that divide the country.” . He continued, “There is only ‘one China’ in the world, and Taiwan is a part of China,” he said.
○ Threat of blocking public investment
Since Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August, U.S.-China relations have been deteriorating. China is carrying out military provocations against Taiwan, and the United States is closely related to Taiwan. On the 14th, the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee passed the Taiwan Policy Act, which treats Taiwan like a non-NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) ally and grants US$6.5 billion (about 9 trillion won) in arms and military training funds for five years, and has been handed over to the plenary session. Although the final process is unclear, it is interpreted as an indication of a stronger anti-Chinese voice in the United States.
Among military experts, voices calling for the US to end strategic ambiguity are growing. Former Indo-Pacific Command commander Philip Davidson last year warned of a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan within six years and called for a re-examination of strategic ambiguity. But Kurt Campbell, White House National Security Council Indo-Pacific Coordinator, opposes the move, saying “there are major downsides to going to strategic clarity.”
It also revealed that President Biden warned that investment would be cut off if China supported Russia under the hood. “If you think the US and other countries will continue to invest in China if you violate the sanctions imposed on Russia, you are making a huge mistake,” Biden said in an interview with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The timing was not specified, but Bloomberg reported that he was referring to the conversation with President Xi in March.
Reporter Semin Heo semin@hankyung.com