In a brief speech made at the White House on Tuesday followingnoon, February 15, Joe Biden alternated signs of openness and messages of firmness, once morest a backdrop of still frenetic diplomatic activity around Russia. Moscow has announced the start of the withdrawal of tens of thousands of soldiers massed for several months on the Ukrainian borders. This “would be positive”judged the American president, “but we have not checked at this stage” its implementation.
The Russian Ministry of Defense has released images of armored vehicles loaded on a train, supposed to illustrate the return to garrison of part of the troops massed on the Ukrainian borders. One “partial withdrawal” confirmed by the Kremlin, which evokes a “normal process” and denounces “hysteria” West regarding a supposed imminent invasion. “We have always said that following the completion of the exercises (…) troops would return to their original garrisons. That’s what’s going on here.”, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. However, Russia is continuing its important maneuvers in Belarus, Ukraine’s pro-Russian neighbor, until February 20.
Russian troops, now assessed by the Americans at “more than 150,000” while they spoke so far of more than 100,000, remain in “a threatening position” around Ukraine, Joe Biden lamented. Since then, “An invasion remains quite possible”he warned.
Caution on both sides
Like the American president, Westerners took these announcements with caution. The most positive was German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who, following being received in the Kremlin by Vladimir Putin, greeted ” a good sign “and estimated that there was “enough basis for discussion” with Russia “for things to evolve positively”.
The Russian President, for his part, assured that ” of cours “ he did not want a war, while insisting that the expansion of NATO constituted a threat to his country. Moscow is still demanding a guarantee that Kiev will never be able to join the Atlantic Alliance. “There is one fact: Ukraine’s NATO membership is not on the agenda”replied Olaf Scholz. “Everyone needs to take a step back and realize that we cannot have a possible military conflict over an issue that is not on the agenda”he added.
The German Chancellor tackles an extremely sensitive subject head-on. Joe Biden, who is the first to temper Kiev’s hopes of joining the military alliance, nevertheless refuses to publicly end the “open door” posture that, at least in theory, would allow NATO to host new members.
France, for its part, has invited Russia to pass ” words “ to “acts”. “Lyrics are good. We are waiting for the actions. If the actions are there, it will be even better”launched the head of French diplomacy, Jean-Yves Le Drian, at the National Assembly, before the Elysée declared that the Russian announcement constituted a “first encouraging sign” most « fragile ».
Sanctions are “ready”
In general, Washington maintains a posture of firmness once morest Moscow, once more recalled by Joe Biden on Tuesday. He reiterated that a Russian invasion of Ukraine might take place “at any time”and warned that the penalties for responding to them were “ready”.
These measures “powerful” will put in particular “the pressure on their largest and most important financial institutions and key industries”, added the American president, also reaffirming that the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline between Russia and Germany would never come into service in the event of a Russian attack. He also said “ready to answer” See you later “asymmetrical attack” once morest the United States or its NATO allies, which may include cyberattacks.
The 79-year-old Democrat also once once more boasted “unity” of the western camp, which he says has been reinforced by this crisis. The Americans are constantly consulting their allies. On Tuesday, Joe Biden, for example, took stock with his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron, while the heads of American, French, German and British diplomats also spoke on their side.
The American national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, met for his part Jakub Kumoch, adviser to Polish President Andrzej Duda, to discuss Ukraine and the “transatlantic coordination” on the “defense and deterrence”according to the White House.
“Pragmatic dialogue”
Joe Biden continued to reach out to his Russian counterpart, assuring there are ways to respond to “security concerns” from each side. Moscow, which denies any desire to invade Ukraine, deplores the rejection by the West of its main demands, namely the end of the Alliance’s enlargement policy, the commitment not to deploy arms offensives near Russian territory and the withdrawal of NATO infrastructure from Eastern Europe. The West has offered talks on topics like arms control in exchange.
Kiev announced on Tuesday that the websites of the Ministry of Defense and those of two public banks had been targeted by a cyberattack, the Ukrainian authorities pointing the finger “the aggressor”, an expression generally used to refer to Russia. A large computer attack is one of the scenarios evoked as being the harbinger of a classic military offensive.
At the same time, the Russian Parliament has asked President Putin to recognize the independence of the breakaway territories in eastern Ukraine. Asked regarding the issue, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov assured reporters that there was currently no “no official decision”but that the request of the deputies “reflected the opinion of the population” Russian. This recognition would be a “unarmed aggression”warned the French Minister of Foreign Affairs, Jean-Yves Le Drian, at the National Assembly.
