2024-01-06 06:15:00
What is the biggest concern of US Democrats? with a view to the 2024 election? The age of the incumbent and his fitness are usually mentioned. Joe Biden is 81 Year old. His movements seem stiff. He sometimes makes promises or forgets something.
But, the Democrats encourage themselves: If Biden stays fit for his age and doesn’t trip over sandbags on stage again, then he will but probably Donald Trump hit. He finally did it in 2020. Trump is only a few years younger, is also quite unpopular and has several lawsuits on his hands because of his handling of democracy and the rule of law.
Biden reminded the nation of Trump’s role in the storming of the Capitol on January 6th three years ago Speech at the start of the election year on Friday afternoon (local time) in Valley Forge, Pennsylvania – a legendary site of the Revolutionary War against Great Britain, where the survival of the young democracy USA was at stake in the winter of 1777/78. “We almost lost America on January 6th,” Biden said. 2024 “is democracy on the ballot paper. Your freedom is on the ballot.”
MAGA extremism in the Republican Party is an existential threat to democracy.
Joe Biden, US President.
In a parallel published Campaign video warned Biden referring to Trump’s Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement: “MAGA extremism in the Republican Party is an existential threat to our country’s democracy.”
Scholz believes in Biden’s victory
Europeans who fear a second Trump presidency are also pinning their hopes on Biden defeating Trump in 2020 and being able to do so again. Chancellor Olaf Scholz believes it is unlikely that Donald Trump will become US President again. It is “more plausible that President Biden will be re-elected,” he claimed a few months ago.
Doug Sosnik was Bill Clinton’s chief strategist and advises top politicians and Fortune 100 companies.
Former presidential adviser Doug Sosnik warns against such wishful thinking. “Joe Biden has a bigger problem than fitness,” says the expert close to the Democrats. He was Bill Clinton’s chief strategist for several years and advises top politicians and Fortune 100 companies. His specialty: the relevant underlying trends from the analysis of a large number of surveys filter out.
“Many voters have lost trust in Joe Biden. Majorities consider Trump to be more competent than Biden in key areas. A majority thinks: We were better off under Trump than we are now under Biden. “Biden is also losing the battle for narrative,” says Sosnik, listing his concerns.
Trump is credited with greater expertise? That sounds surprising to many Germans. In their eyes he is the fake news preacher. And Biden the perhaps more boring but more reliable president.
Who can do jobs, migration and foreign policy better?
However, the decisive factor in the US election year is the perception of voters there. Sosnik was mid-October Guest of the American Academy Berlin. He mercilessly led the surprised Berlin audience through the graphics of the opinion in the USA.
Who can face challenges in the field of business solve better? 52 percent prefer Trump over Biden (28 percent). Who creates more new jobs? 49 to 30 for Trump. Inflation? 50 to 27 for Trump. Migration? 52 to 28 for Trump. Trump is also ahead on foreign policy, 43 to 38.
In the eyes of Americans, Biden only has a clear advantage in competence on issues such as abortion, 43 percent to 34 percent. On climate policy, 44 to 24. And on Medicare and Social Security, 39 to 37.
Biden has the worst ratings of an incumbent in decades.
Doug Sosnik, ex-presidential adviser.
In the months since then, opinion “hasn’t gotten any better for Biden. When I was in Berlin in October, it was a neck-and-neck race with a slight advantage for Biden because the economic data was improving,” analyzes Sosnik. “Today I would call it a close race with an advantage for Trump.”
Im Cut of the polls are only 40 percent happy with the president, 56 percent dissatisfied. Two thirds see that Country on the wrong path. The voting intentions lie Trump with 46.5 percent ahead of Biden (44.3). “Biden has the worst results of an incumbent in decades,” says Sosnik.
The trend makes Trump the favorite.
Doug Sosnik, ex-presidential adviser.
He points to his 40 years of experience with presidential elections. “Longer-term trends are even more important than current survey numbers. The trends in the third and fourth quarters of the third year in office and in the first and second quarters of the fourth year in office are decisive for the incumbent’s re-election chances. Biden’s trend is negative. That makes Trump the favorite.”
Trump also has a better sense of which topics and narratives interest citizens. “To date, Biden has failed to use his office as a megaphone and connect a narrative to his presidency that resonates with voters.”
Does this mean: Biden will probably lose the election and Trump will be president again in 2024? Sosnik doesn’t want to go that far in his forecast. “There is still a long time until election day. Biden is in a deep hole, but positive developments can also occur.”
Trump’s strategy: election as a referendum on Biden
There are also other motivations that can persuade – or dissuade – voters from voting for a candidate: sympathy and antipathy. The risk assessment of which of the two is more dangerous for US democracy. Or who will defend US interests more vigorously in the event of a war with China.
In Sosnik’s opinion, what will be crucial in the 2024 election will be which issue is most likely to mobilize voters in both camps and what role third-party candidates will play. Biden and Trump are not popular in the eyes of the majority. It’s less about who is better and more about who is the lesser evil.
“Trump wants to turn the election into a referendum on Biden’s presidency and his weaknesses.” If he succeeds, the incumbent loses. If the comparison of skills comes into focus, Biden also loses.
Biden’s strategy: Trump threatens democracy
Conversely, Biden is trying to portray Trump as a person – including the threat to America’s democracy – to move to the center of the debate. If that succeeds and “the incumbent makes skeptical voters feel like it’s okay to vote for Biden even if we don’t actually like him, he can win the election,” says Sosnik.
But: Trump can count on significantly more enthusiasm among his supporters than Biden. 57 percent of voters who have already decided for Trump are voting for him because they want him as president. Only 36 percent say that they want to prevent Biden as their motive.
The opposite is true for Biden voters: 58 percent want to prevent Trump and therefore vote for Biden. Only 38 percent describe their vote as a yes to Biden.
More on the topic on Tagesspiegel Plus
“America is becoming a rogue state” What threatens if Trump wins the US election in 2024? Abortion, education, the power of the suburbs These are the ten new rules of American politics Historian Heinrich August Winkler in an interview “For too long, German politicians refused to acknowledge the dangers”
Seen this way, the chances are not bad that the Democrats can make Trump and the threat to democracy the main topic of the election campaign. But this hope also has a catch.
“The vast majority consider the political system to be broken and no longer have confidence in the institutions,” explains Sosnik. “This is also why the trials against Trump, his extreme positions and his incendiary rhetoric have so far done so little harm to him in the Republican nomination and in the competition with Biden.”
However, if Trump were to be convicted of a crime before Election Day, that could give Biden a victory because unaffiliated voters and some Republicans would then turn away from Trump.
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