2023-05-09 16:35:16
1. Macro
◆Main indicators (stock/bond/dollar/crude oil/gas/gold/coin)
Slight decline in the three major indices
10-year KTB 3.51% 2-year KTB 4.02%
US 3 months 5.25%, 1 month 5.44%
Short-term bonds soar amid concerns over debt limit
Crude Oil Falls, Gas Soars
Gold stays flat, coin rises slightly
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index 89.0 (89.6)
Dropped from 90, lowest since pandemic
Economic prospects fall short of labor shortages
Average of 49 years 98 .. Deteriorating psychology 16 consecutive months below 98
All-Day Senior Loan Officer Investigation (SLOOS)
Demand for loans to large and medium-sized enterprises decreased 31.3% -> 55.6%
Demand for Small Business Loans Decreased 53.5%
67% Raise Standards for Commercial Real Estate Lending
“Strict corporate loan standards, higher CRE standards”
◆Biden-Hospital Representative Debt Limit Meeting
Biden-Hospital Leader Debt Limit Meeting
Should I put down my default anxiety?
White House: “This meeting is not a negotiation”
Biden prepares speech criticizing Republicans tomorrow
Parallel lines between the two parties
“Budget reduction” vs “Unconditional increase”
Public opinion campaign begins
Thousands of dollars invested in publicity campaigns
I won’t be able to negotiate debt this time
Wall Street, pay attention to the timing of the next meeting
Treasury Department “debt limit deadline is June 1”
Debt ceiling negotiations are not easy within the deadline
Government spending negative for stocks during negotiation difficulties
Citi “Boeing, GE, Raytheon Short Selling Strategy”
Citi “At the time of extreme political confrontation
Short selling stocks related to government spending, put options”
Boeing, GE, Raytheon, Northrop Grumman
◆Wall Street market analysis (Goldman Sachs/Bill Gross)
April CPI Announcement D-1
What’s the monthly forecast?
Goldman “expected a 0.5% increase from the previous month”
Rise in used cars and clothes, decrease in travel prices
Consideration of higher interest rate hikes
“Fed will not raise interest rates on CPI alone”
Bill Gross: Debt ceiling negotiations will pass
“Buy 1-2 month bonds rather than long-term government bonds”
3-month Treasury yield soars, 1-month record 5.354%
“Find a safe haven.. Pay attention to VTIP, STIP, etc.”
(Short-term inflation protection bonds, TIPS inflation-linked bonds)
◆Remarks from the Fed the previous day/Jefferson Speech/(12:05) Williams Speech/Powell Confidence Survey
◆Gulsby “Credit crunch in progress… Possibility of recession”
“Be mindful of regional differences… reducing the job bubble”
Jefferson and Williams today
official speech
Powell’s public confidence has plummeted
Gallup poll: 36% of “good or good”
Confidence plummeted from 58% in April 2020
Lowest since 2001…Ben Bernanke Lowest 39%
Joe Biden 35%..the lowest since Bush in 2008
Yellen is also 37%.. Economic dissatisfaction lowers credibility
◆Turkish opposition victory? soaring stock prices
Turkish stocks rise amid ‘crazy inflation’
Kultzdaroulu challenges Erdogan
“Return to Orthodox Monetary Policy, Central Bank Change”
Anticipation of the opposition’s first victory
The banking index rose 6.5% this week
BIST 100 index up 5% in two days
12:00 EIA Energy Outlook
2. Performance
◆(All day) PayPal/Lucid/Palantier
◆Paypal sales of $7.04 billion (6.98 billion)
EPS $1.17 (1.11) above expectations
High proportion of low-margin brain trees
Business Partner Payment Processing Business
Despite the increase in sales guidance,
The increase in operating margin is 125bp -> 100bp
“Additional services, improved margin structure”
Shares fall on negative long-term margin outlook
◆Lucid (LCID) earnings announcement
Sales 149 million, EPS -0.43 dollars
Peter Rawlinson LCID CEO
“More than 10,000 vehicles produced this year”
In February, “production of 10,000 to 14,000 units”
Production guidance appears to have declined
Has Lucid Air Demand Declined?
Undisclosed pre-order demand
$700 million decrease in cash holdings in the first quarter
Lucid CFO “Sufficient cash until 2Q next year”
◆Palantier (PLTR) sales of 525 million dollars (506 million)
EPS $0.05 (0.04) above expectations
50% increase in US commercial customers
2nd highest net profit after first surplus in 4Q
“There is no unprecedented demand for AI platforms”
Anticipation of “partial use from this month”
◆(loaded) Nintendo/Apollo/Temper (including M&A news)/COTY/Under Armor
◆Nintendo (NTDOY) performance announcement
306.5 billion in sales, 86.54 billion in operating profit
Nintendo presented guidance for declining earnings
“FY2024 sales expected to decrease by 9.5% compared to the previous year”
Sony PS5 sells record
Nintendo Switch has an aging problem
Nintendo switch sales
Sales forecast of 15 million units
Apollo Global Management (APO)
EPS $1.42 (1.46) below expectations
“Low interest rates for 10 years, the private sector plays a role”
Dividend of $0.43 per share announced
Tempur (TPX) sales of 1.21 billion dollars (1.22 billion)
EPS $0.53 (0.51) below sales, above profits
Earnings soar during corona times
Annual EPS growth of 25% for 5 years.. Concern dispelled
Acquisition of Steinhoff mattresses for $4 billion
Private company selling in 2400 stores in 49 states
◆COTY sales of 1.29 billion dollars (1.23 billion)
EPS $0.19 (0.03) above expectations
America’s 4th largest beauty company focused on perfume sales
“Price increase by single digit… could be raised further”
“Strong demand for beauty in all categories”
Core sales growth forecast 6~8 -> 9~10%
◆Under Armor (UAA) performance
1.4 billion in sales, $0.18 in EPS
Stephanie Linnatz CEO
“Possible to increase sales in North America”
Performance was better than expected
Disappointing annual guidance
Under Armor “Next year’s EPS of $0.47 to $0.51”
Wall Street expectations are $0.61 per share.
Despite the disappointing performance of Novavex, soaring
Revenue 81 million ($95.61 million) EPS -$3.41
COVID-19 combination vaccine trial ‘positive’
Sentiment revived by 25% reduction in staffing costs
◆(Janghoo) Occidental/Airbnb/Alcon/Coupang/Ribian
Pay attention to future earnings announcements
Occidental, EA, Coupang, Rivian, etc.
3. News
25% decrease in urban pedestrian traffic
5 days a week commute disappears in the United States,
Opportunities in the suburbs?
Traffic on foot in the city center in April
25% decrease compared to April 2019
MRI springboard survey,
A blow to the downtown distribution chain
Nordstrom closes two stores in San Fran
Suburbs benefit relatively
Do you go to the suburban shopping mall during working hours?
Simon Property Visitor Growth
1Q store utilization rate 94.4%
Rent Growth in Suburbs
America outpaces urban areas
Aftermath of China’s stricter exhaust gas regulations
China tightens exhaust gas regulations from July
Vehicle production and sales are prohibited if the standards are not met
The Chinese automobile association is a township
“Please postpone until next January”
When the regulation comes into force from July
Difficulties in disposing of inventory of vehicles that do not meet standards
Polarization of bank bonuses + Settlement of Goldman lawsuit against women
Johnson Associates “Bank bonuses are also polarized”
“Local businesses -20%, large banks +20%”
“Big banks do well, small banks struggle”
1Q IB revenue of the top 5 banks -23%, cost reduction continued
“Bond Trading, Consumers, Global Profits Positive”
“Wealth management is expected to be -5 to -10%”
Goldman Sachs sues women’s wages
Payment of 215 million dollars as settlement
Pre-trial settlement with 2,800 female employees
Complaints since 1997.. 29% of current partners
GM recruits ex-Apple executives
GM hires ex-Apple executives
Senior Vice President of Software Division
Former Vice President of Apple Cloud Services
Mike Abbott joins GM on the 22nd
Double revenue target by 2030
Software can grow
Expand pickup to save Amazon costs
Amazon “Pick it up and get $10 off”
Offer on orders over $25
Part of a cost reduction plan
$1 fee for direct returns
Free Shipping – Expenses Spike After Returns
Prime price last year 20 -> $139
LinkedIn lays off 716 people
Suspension of operation of INcareer, a Chinese-specific app
4. Report
Alkami Technology/Skyworks Solutions/Ferguson
◆JP “Ready for long-term growth”
Opinion on ‘Overweight’ by Alkami
Software for local banks and credit unions
Online banking potential market $11 billion
“Sales growth visible, market share increased”
“The main target audience of FDIC-insured banks”
“There is little chance of hitting the number of customers”
Target price of $15..21.4% room
◆BMO Capital “There are more questions than answers”
Skyworks, excellent -> market performance downgrade
Lowered guidance due to semiconductor weakness
“Gross margin hit for several quarters due to high inventory”
“Pricing, product diversification questions”
Target price 140 -> $100
◆Zefferys “will increase its market share”
Ferguson (FERG) Upgrade to ‘Buy’
Distribution of special plumbing and home appliances “Pricing power”
Target price of $181..28% room
Atlantic, Shopify ‘neutral’
“Long-term outlook good, but consider short-term valuation”
Guggenheim ‘buys’ Shals (SHLS)
“Conservative guidance… $30 target”
◆BOA “Wood Deck, Resilience”
Trex ‘buy’ raised
New York = Jeong So-ram/Shin In-gyu Correspondent ram@hankyung.com
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#Biden #Spiral #Debt #Ceiling #Negotiation #CPI #Price #Caught #Jung #Soram #Shin #Inkyus #Minari