2023-05-21 15:18:39
The Biden administration is preparing for the war in Ukraine to turn into a frozen conflict similar to the situation on the Korean Peninsula, the Politico news site reported Thursday.
A conflict is frozen when there is a cessation of fighting without any peace treaty being signed by the belligerents, creating an environment of insecurity and instability. Hostilities may resume at any time. As is the case in Korea.
And it must be emphasized that a “frozen conflict” which would imply that NATO continues to arm Kyiv would not be acceptable to Moscow.
It may well be, in my opinion, that this was discussed at the G7 meeting in Hiroshima, which was attended by Ukrainian President Zelensky. It remains to find where to draw the ceasefire lines acceptable to the two belligerents. Quite a challenge.
Conflict freeze: no way for Kyiv
Ukraine is definitely opposed to any proposal that would imply the loss of its territories or the freezing of the conflict. That’s what the Ukrainians told Chinese special envoy Li Hui, who met with President Zelensky a few days ago to discuss the possibility of peace talks.
Kyiv wants Russia to withdraw from all Ukrainian territories it has captured since launching the invasion last year and also from Crimea. For his part, Putin wants any peace agreement to recognize the Ukrainian territories he annexed as Russian.
Moreover, Pentagon analysts do not expect Ukraine to regain its lost territories in its imminent counter-offensive, according to Politico.
The United States is still committed to supporting Kyiv for the long term, as indicated by the decision to allow its allies to supply Ukraine with American-made F-16 jets.
NATO members want Ukraine to live in osmosis with the organization without becoming a full member. NATO would ensure that Ukraine’s weapons were compatible with those of the alliance, and its armies would conduct joint military maneuvers with Ukrainian troops.
NATO’s Secret Plans
And for the first time since the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union, NATO is drawing up plans to wage war against Russia.
Archyde.com reports that at the upcoming NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania in July, alliance leaders will approve secret military plans that will detail how to respond to a Russian attack.
They will be completely different from those developed during the Cold War. Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact, NATO has grown from 16 to 31 members.
The alliance is preparing to strengthen its presence on its eastern flank, a move the Russians consider threatening. NATO has recently acquired an important geostrategic advantage there. Its newest member, Finland, shares a 1,300 km border with Russia, making it difficult to defend its territory.
In this new environment, it is difficult to see how the Russians in their operational plans could not envisage the use of tactical nuclear weapons. They already regularly threaten to do so in the current conflict.
1684689191
#war #Ukraine #NATO #preparing #worst