Image caption: The conflict in the Middle East has raised tensions within Britain Article information
- Author, Laura Kuensberg
- Role, Sunday show host with Laura Kuensberg
- 9 October 2024, 06:54 GMT
Last updated 3 hours ago
“Let’s be real, the war has begun,” one former minister told me. “What happens in the Middle East never stays in the Middle East.”
It is difficult not to be moved by the raging conflict represented by the killing of Israelis at the hands of Hamas almost a year ago, the suffering experienced by the families of the kidnapped hostages, the killing of thousands of Gazans by Israel in its response, and the terrible suffering there.
And now there is Lebanon, where Israel has launched a new offensive after nearly a year of cross-border hostilities, killing hundreds of people in air strikes against Hezbollah, and now, hundreds of thousands of civilians are forced to flee in search of safety.
But the matter may seem confusing and far from us. So why does this matter to Britain?
“There is humanitarian horror,” says one former diplomat. Of course, there are many families in the UK who are concerned about the safety of their friends or relatives who remain in Lebanon, Israel and Gaza, and there is a possibility that the number of refugees will likely head to Europe from Lebanon if all-out war breaks out.
The conflict has raised tensions here too: “We see it in our streets,” says the former minister, whether in the Gaza protests, the rise in anti-Semitism, or even a handful of pro-Palestinian politicians winning seats in parliament.
If Israel attacks the Iranian oil industry, as US President Joe Biden has publicly admitted, the costs could affect us all.
Oil prices rose by 5 percent after Biden’s statements, as Iran is the seventh largest oil producer in the world. While the world has become accustomed to slower inflation, rising energy costs could cause inflation to rise again and we will all feel it.
One source noted that if the conflict continues to escalate, “the Iranians may close the vital Strait of Hormuz to demonstrate their strength,” which could “push us into a 1970s-style crisis.”
About 20 percent of the world’s oil passes through this narrow water channel. “The impact on the economy could be huge,” says another British government source.
But what can Britain do about this very complex situation, especially under a new government that is still trying to find its footing? There is the practical side, the defensive side, and the diplomatic side.
The British Foreign Office has chartered flights to repatriate Britons living in Lebanon. There is additional military staff in Cyprus ready to provide additional assistance if necessary.
Britain is heavily involved in providing humanitarian aid in the region, and the Labor Party made the decision to provide funds back to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA), once it came to power.
Image caption: British Prime Minister
British military support
The British Army was there to provide support to help Israel defend itself against Iranian missiles. RAF Typhoons were in the air on Tuesday night ready to support Israel’s defences. Israel also received support from the United States.
In the end, the UK did not fire any of its weapons, but last April, RAF Typhoons based in Cyprus shot down Iranian drones.
There is a feeling of concern in Labor Party circles about the extent to which this role may expand in the coming weeks. One senior member of parliament said: “We can be there to help defend Israel, and we can support America in that, but we should not be there in any way, no matter how involved, in attacking Iran.”
The UK is in a strange position, as one of its former ambassadors described it. The ministers are urging Israel to rein in its attacks across Lebanon, just as they have called on it over the past 12 months to stop bombing Gaza. But at the same time, when they are asked for help, they help Israel defend itself.
Although some arms sales have been suspended, the flow of weapons continues.
Diplomatic opportunities
And when it comes to diplomacy, a former senior official told me, the UK is “thinking alternative ways,” or in other words, encouraging all players, not just its allies, to think about how to end the conflict, and what a post-war settlement might look like.
The UK has specific opportunities as there are things Britain can do that the US cannot, with an embassy in the Iranian capital Tehran, for example, while the Americans have not had any formal diplomatic relations with Iran since 1980.
“Diplomacy is not just talking to your friends,” says the former official, noting that the UK has a role to play in understanding Iran’s position and communicating it to others to ensure that Israel and the US do not make decisions “based on misunderstandings.”
The UK’s position has been exploited for diplomatic interests in the past.
A former minister tells me that when the families of hostages from Israel were in London, a meeting was arranged between them and the chief Qatari negotiator, a meeting that could not have happened anywhere else.
Another source says the UK “is not just a back channel when it comes to Iran, we can be the front channel.” British Foreign Secretary David Lammy held a telephone conversation with the Iranian Foreign Minister last August.
Limits and high risks
There are limits to the influence that can be exercised, and not just because of the reality of the region.
Although the United Kingdom’s voice is important, it is not a decisive factor of influence. One source in the British government says: “The only decisive external player is the United States.”
Perhaps the truth now is that “no one is afraid of the United States anymore,” as one senior government official points out. The months we spent urging restraint did not end the conflict. On the contrary.
It is worth asking whether UK politicians are willing to get more involved.
Foreign policy may seem like a distraction with officials having to travel the world while you have to deal with disputes over freebies and winter fuel payments. Sir Keir Starmer found himself “spending more time on board than he ever expected”, says one senior MP.
There is no doubt that diplomacy is important, whether its impact is easy to measure or not. One government insider suggests that unless the UK, US and Western allies daily urge restraint, we may be witnessing a parallel universe in which conflicts could actually escalate into a war far worse than anything we have seen so far. “Everyone has worked incredibly hard to try to prevent the crisis from spilling over,” says one senior official.
The question now is whether a terrible conflict that is drawing in the United States and other powers can be avoided, and Israel’s choice of response to Iran’s attacks may be decisive.
Much is at stake as a broader conflict could wreak havoc on our economy and global stability, as well as a devastating toll on civilians trapped in wars not of their making.
“The best we can do is diplomacy,” says one former minister. It is certain that Britain cannot stop or solve this dangerous dilemma on its own, but the seriousness of what is happening means that it is forced to try.
