The anecdote would gladly seem innocuous if it were not revealing of the tormented relationship between France and Ukraine for almost a year. When Volodymyr Zelensky began a second European tour by going to London on February 8, France did not issue an invitation because they were unaware of his arrival. It was only by seeing the images of the Ukrainian president at Westminster Hall in London that the services of the Élysée were activated to hastily organize a meeting with Emmanuel Macron the next day. The French president initially planned to go to the theater with his wife.
This setback – the Élysée was planning to invite the Ukrainian president a few days later – illustrates the many missed opportunities and misunderstandings that have marked Franco-Ukrainian relations since the start of the conflict on February 24, 2022.
A moderate position decried by kyiv
The first misunderstandings date back to when Emmanuel Macron called for maintaining dialogue with Moscow. “Tomorrow we will have a peace to build, let’s never forget that. We will have to do this with, around the table, Ukraine and Russia (…) But this will not be done in the negation, nor in the exclusion of one or the other, nor even in humiliation”, underlines the French president on May 9, during a press conference at the European Parliament, in Strasbourg. This moderate speech, pronounced in reference to the “diktat” imposed in 1919 on Germany by the winners of World War I, and which would lead to a new world war in 1939-45, went badly in Kiev. The response of Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kouleba was scathing. “Calls to avoid humiliating Russia cannot to humiliate France or any other country. Because it is Russia that humbles itself. We’d all better focus on putting Russia back in its place. It will bring peace and save lives.”
A barrage of harsh comments emanating from the countries of the East and the Baltic countries then falls on the misunderstood president. “If the French position vis-à-vis Russia has been criticized by Kiev and other capitals, it has not been questioned in France, nuance Arnaud Benedetti, political scientist and associate professor at the University of Paris -Sorbonne. There is a form of consensus in French opinion and the political class as a whole, apart from a few Atlanticist minorities. The French, who are largely opposed to Russia, want to favor the diplomatic route as much as possible This French desire to resort to dialogue rather than armed conflict is partly explained by its past: France, which has experienced war on its territory, has retained a form of resilience from its past.
A weak military participation of France
It is driven by the same logic as France has contributed less to the supply of weapons than other Western allies. With a battalion of 31 American-made Abrams tanks and two billion dollars worth of weapons and military equipment (1.8 billion euros), the American army is by far the largest military ally of Ukraine. It is closely followed by the United Kingdom which gave more than 7 billion euros and 14 Challenger 2 tanks in mid-January. Then from Germany, which released 2 billion euros and 14 Leopard 2 tanks, under very insistent pressure from kyiv. France, yet the leading military power in continental Europe, only handed over 1.4 billion euros and 30 Caesar guns to kyiv.
A more modest donation which, compared to the share of GDP, places it below other European donors. “The lesser contribution from Paris can be explained, here too, by its history. France, more timid in its material commitment, does not have the same past with Russia as the United States and the United Kingdom, continues François Benedetti. The remnants of the Cold War explain the more entrenched positions of Washington and London since the start of the war.”
If the French efforts are greeted by kyiv, they do not seem to fully satisfy Volodymyr Zelensky who multiplies the calls to provide more weapons, in particular fighter planes, and more quickly. Repeated requests which come up against, again, the pragmatism of the French president. “I am convinced that we must favor useful deliveries to carry out these operations and resist, rather than commitments which will arrive very late or very far away”, explains Emmanuel Macron on February 9 after Zelensky’s visit to Brussels, fueling Ukraine’s vexation a little.
France excluded from an ongoing agreement between London and kyiv
Under these conditions, it is not surprising that the United Kingdom has the preference of the Ukrainian authorities to establish a major contract for the manufacture of arms and military vehicles on Ukrainian soil. If nothing is official at this stage, British emissaries have already traveled to Ukraine to study the creation of joint ventures that would build armaments under British license, according to revelations from the February 11 Telegraph. Such an agreement could further tighten the already close defense relations between the two countries. And once again distance France from its relations with kyiv.
For the past few days, however, it seems that relations between kyiv and Paris have been changing. Emmanuel Macron’s cautious rhetoric has given way to a tougher rhetoric with regard to Russia. In his statements of February 8, the French head of state mentioned his desire “to ensure the defeat of Russia” and promises to accompany Ukraine towards “victory”. “Words which belong to the military register and which place Emmanuel Macron as a co-belligerent”, according to the political scientist.
At the same time, telephone calls with Moscow have become rare. No telephone discussion has been reported between the Élysée and the Kremlin since September.
Change of tone in Paris
“Emmanuel Macron indeed seems to leave the costume of the diplomat to take that of warlord, analyzes Arnaud Benedetti. Probably because he realizes that Russia has gone too far and that the springs of diplomacy are exhausted”. And in a more prosaic way, it is also a way for him “to reinvest the stature of a warlord to create the conditions of unity around his person, at the moment France is going through a social movement against the pension reform .”
This change in tone did not escape Volodymyr Zelensky. In an interview granted on February 8 to Figaro and Spiegel, the Ukrainian president went so far as to affirm that Emmanuel Macron had evolved. “I believe he has changed. And he has changed for real this time. (…) After all, he was the one who opened the door to tank deliveries. He also supported the candidacy of the Ukraine in the EU. I think it was a real signal”. On reading the article, the comment aroused “the discreet annoyance of the Élysée”, we report in the columns of the world. One more time.