2024-03-11 18:00:00
The 2024 Big 12 Tournament tips off on Tuesday. The Houston Cougars (-135) are the betting favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, followed by Iowa State (+280) and Baylor (+800).
The Big 12 is rated by most people to be the toughest conference in college basketball. Houston is the deserving favorite but because the conference is so deep, there isn’t much value on the Cougars at odds of -135. Here is a breakdown of the Big 12 Tournament, including the teams bettors should be eyeing.
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Favorites
Houston -135
There’s no question that Houston should be the betting favorite but I just can’t back the Cougars at this number. The Big 12 is the best, deepest conference in college basketball. There are seven or eight teams with a legitimate chance to win the Big 12 Tournament.
Betting conference tournaments is all regarding finding value and there simply isn’t any by taking the banged-up Cougars at -135. If you are a big fan of Houston, wait to bet them in the NCAA Tournament next week.
Iowa State +280
Iowa State is coming off a loss to Kansas State but this is a team I really like to make a run in the NCAA Tournament. The Cyclones are elite defensively and the offense is more consistent than it has been in year’s past.
I can certainly see Iowa State winning the Big 12 Tournament. However, like Houston, I just don’t see the value on betting the Cyclones at +280 in such a deep conference. With so many good teams in the Big 12, my advice is to pass on the favorite and back teams with higher odds.
In conferences that lack depth like the Big Ten and ACC, I do the opposite and back the best teams. It doesn’t mean Houston or Iowa State won’t win the Big 12 Tournament but from a betting perspective, it’s not worth it to me to put money on them at short odds.
Baylor +800
Now, we’re talking. Down in the lower half of the bracket I like Baylor at +800 and Texas +2000 to make a potential run to the tournament finals. The Bears would potentially get struggling Kansas in the quarterfinals. Baylor just beat the Jayhawks by eight on March 2.
Assuming Baylor gets by Kansas, a semifinals matchup with Iowa State might be on deck. I believe the winner of that game takes down the Big 12 Tournament. But unlike the Cyclones, I see value with Baylor. I make the Bears +600 to win the tournament, so grabbing them at +800 makes sense.
Sleeper
BYU +1500
I mentioned there were around seven teams that might realistically win the Big 12 Tournament. BYU is one of those teams. The Cougars attempt the second-most threes in the country. Teams like that are always dangerous in a tournament setting. If BYU gets hot from the outside, they can make a deep run.
I also like the draw for the Cougars. They get the winner of Oklahoma State/UFC, then Texas Tech. BYU matches up well with all of those teams. Win two games then a potential semifinals matchup with Houston awaits. To beat the Cougars, teams need to make shots, and BYU can make shots.
The Big 12 Tournament should be wild and I can certainly see a team like BYU getting hot and winning the whole thing.
Team to Avoid
Kansas +1200
I’ve been out on Kansas since January. This team is just too one-dimensional offensively. The Jayhawks can’t shoot from the outside and don’t get to the free throw line much. When Kansas isn’t dominating in the paint with Hunter Dickinson, it struggles. And now Dickinson is banged up, so I really don’t like Kansas’ chances to win the Big 12 Tournament.
Bill Self is still one of the top coaches in college basketball. However, I don’t see the overall talent and depth with this team this year. I think their stay in the upcoming NCAA Tournament will be a short one.
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Picks
Baylor +800
BYU +1500
I like the numbers with Baylor and BYU. Both teams have been inconsistent this season but when they are at the top of their game, they can beat anyone. Baylor is my top play to win the Big 12 Tournament at +800, while BYU is my favorite sleeper.
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