2023-06-08 22:00:00
The summary
State-guaranteed loans (PGE) are probably the emblematic device of the economic response to the health crisis. Announced during the speech by the President of the Republic on March 16, 2020 within the limit of a ceiling of 300 billion euros, their implementation was voted by Parliament in article 6 of the amending finance law of March 23, 2020. The maximum duration of the loan was set at six years.
Halfway through, comes the time to take stock. Jérôme Bascher, special rapporteur for the credits of the “State financial commitment” mission to which the calls for guarantees under the PGEs are attached, thus wanted to assess the budgetary risk associated with the PGEs, even though this depends for a large share of unforeseen economic developments in March 2020.
This report thus endeavors to dissect the financial mechanisms at work (granting, amortization, call for guarantees) and the responsibilities of the various actors (companies, banks, Treasury, Bpifrance, Banque de France) in the implementation of the EMP. It also takes stock of the various adaptations aimed at containing the risk of non-reimbursement, and proposes an essential forward-looking approach to apprehend the evolution of the risk.
All in all, the budgetary risk associated with EMPs appears to be under control. According to the most recent estimates, the net losses for the State would amount to 3.6 billion euros over the entire duration of the scheme, for a total amount granted approaching 144 billion euros.
Points of vigilance remain in the hotel and catering and manufacturing industry sectors and, more generally, in small businesses. Furthermore, estimates of losses related to EMPs, if they are robust, might be more frequent. The models and data used would also benefit from being consistent with each other.
This is the meaning of the eight recommendations of the special rapporteur, which essentially aim to improve Parliament’s information to better understand the budgetary risk associated with PGEs and to strengthen support and detection of small businesses in difficulty.
View the report
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