Berlin Federal Election Repeat: Traffic Light Parties Suffer Losses

2024-02-12 01:38:00

As of: February 12, 2024 2:38 a.m

In the partial repeat of the federal election in Berlin, only just under a fifth of those eligible to vote had voted by midday. The second attempt didn’t go completely smoothly either.

• Repeat election in a fifth of Berlin’s electoral districts
• defended all twelve direct mandates
• Voter turnout lower than 2021
• around 550,000 people were able to vote once more

In the partial repeat of the 2021 federal election in Berlin, the parties in the traffic light government – SPD, Greens and FDP – recorded slight losses. The CDU and AfD have gained slightly compared to the election two and a half years ago. The information is based on the valid results of 2021 and the results of the partial repeat on Sunday.
The CDU (+1.3) and AfD (+1.0) each gained around one percentage point and thus somewhat offset their losses compared to the 2017 federal election in Berlin. The SPD, Greens and FDP, on the other hand, recorded slight losses, the Greens of 0.3, the FDP of 0.9 and the SPD of 1.2 percentage points. This means that overall they have lost some of their profits compared to 2017, and the FDP even slipped into the red. The left remains roughly stable and gains 0.1 percentage points compared to 2021.
When it comes to the order of parties in the 2021 federal election, the AfD is overtaking the FDP. At the first attempt at the election in Berlin, the SPD was in the lead almost two and a half years ago (2021: 23.4, now: 22.3 percent of the second votes), followed by the Greens (2021: 22.4; now: 22.0), CDU (2021: 15.9, now: 17.2), Left (2021: 11.4, now: 11.5), FDP (2021: 9.1, now: 8.1) and AfD (2021: 8, 4, now: 9.4).

All direct mandates remain

There were no shifts in the direct mandates. The 2021 winners also maintained their lead in the four most competitive constituencies.
SPD General Secretary Kevin Kühnert (SPD) will continue to represent Tempelhof-Schöneberg directly in the Bundestag. Almost two and a half years following the actual election, it is clear that he won constituency 81 with 26.7 percent [wahlen-berlin.de]. He originally received 27.1 percent of the vote.
The former governing mayor Michael Müller (also SPD) also retains his direct mandate. He has now finally been confirmed as the direct candidate for Charlottenburg-Wilmersdorf and has achieved 25.6 percent following all votes have been counted. This meant that his final result in the 2021 federal election was revised downwards by 2.3 percentage points.
In Charlottenburg-Wilmersdorf and Tempelhof-Schöneberg, a change in the direct mandate was possible due to tight voting conditions and a high error rate in the actual election.

All direct mandates were defended

Four Berlin direct mandates were in jeopardy due to the partial repetition of the federal election. But none fell. Even if the final results are now much closer in some cases, especially in Charlottenburg-Wilmersdorf.more

Shifts in list positions

Pankow and Reinickendorf were also among the electoral districts in which a change of direct mandate was possible.
In Pankow, the Green constituency winner in 2021, Stefan Gelbhaar, ultimately confidently defended his seat in parliament, and in Reinickendorf the former Minister of State for Culture Monika Grütters (CDU) even expanded her lead. Just like Müller and Kühnert, they would still have been protected by their party’s state lists in the event of a defeat.
However, the Berlin repeat election still has a personnel impact for some of the MPs who only entered the Bundestag in 2021 via their parties’ state lists. The slight shifts in the second votes now mean that some compensatory mandates are filled differently – or are eliminated. Specifically, there were seven shaky candidates in Berlin who had to worry regarding their mandates due to their narrow entry into the Bundestag.
Also represented in the Bundestag are the Green party deputy Andreas Audretsch (Neukölln), CDU general secretary Ottilie Klein (Berlin-Mitte), and the AfD politician Götz Frömming (Pankow). However, four Berlin politicians have to vacate their seats in the Bundestag. The left-wing politician Pascal Meiser (Kreuzberg-Friedrichshain Prenzlauer Berg Ost), Green politician Nina Stahr (Steglitz-Zehlendorf), SPD politician Ana-Maria Trăsnea (Treptow-Köpenick) and the FDP politician Lars Lindemann (Tempelhof-Schöneberg) lose their seats in parliament.
The SPD’s compensatory mandate now falls to the Lower Saxony state list, with Angela Hohmann replacing Trăsnea. Franziska Krumwiede-Steiner from North Rhine-Westphalia receives the Green Party seat from Stahr. An additional CDU seat goes to the politician Jürgen Hardt from North Rhine-Westphalia.

Live blog +++ Results complete +++ Traffic light parties lose, opposition wins

All electoral districts have been counted +++ SPD and FDP lose, CDU and AfD win in some cases strongly +++ Greens defend pole position in Pankow +++ Significantly lower voter turnout +++ All developments in the live blog more

Low voter turnout

Unlike a regular federal election, no forecast of the voting results was published following the polling stations closed at 6 p.m. Projections will also not be issued during the evening.
Votes had to be held once more in around a fifth of Berlin’s electoral districts. The voter turnout was comparatively low. By 4 p.m., only 40.2 percent of those eligible to vote on Sunday went to the polls. In the election in September 2021, 57 percent of those eligible to vote in the repeat voting area at the same time.
Together with the valid results of the 2021 election, this results in an official voter turnout of 54.1 percent (previously officially 57.9 percent).

Minor breakdowns in Pankow and Kreuzberg

“From an organizational point of view, the election went well,” said state returning officer Stephan Bröchler to rbb24 Abendschau. “There have been minor mistakes that have occurred, but that is entirely within the scope of conducting elections.” Bröchler explained the low voter turnout with the manageable effects. “Apparently it wasn’t that attractive because the political majority in the Bundestag hasn’t changed.”
At midday, Bröchler confirmed rbb information that there was a minor breakdown in Berlin-Pankow. The election workers initially mightn’t get hold of the voting documents because a key was missing. Voters were only able to cast their votes here regarding 40 minutes late.
At another polling station in Pankow, an electoral officer was replaced by his deputy because he was “uncooperative,” the DPA reported. There were no delays there.
In Kreuzberg, according to Bröchler, an electoral board was delayed due to an accident with a taxi, so that the polling station in question also started late. “This can happen with the best organization,” said the state returning officer.

The same candidates, no projections – the Berlin election Sunday will be special

More than half a million Berliners are called upon to cast their vote once more on Sunday for the 2021 federal election. Who votes, what effects the partial repetition has – and what is different than on other election days.more

No forecasts or projections

Even if the Berlin repeat election will probably only change the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Bundestag, observers believe it might be a test of sentiment for current federal politics.
The polling stations were open from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. There were no forecasts or projections: the polling stations transmitted the results of their counts over the course of the evening to the state returning officer, who then reported interim results. Shortly before 1 a.m., the last result from a polling station in constituency 83, Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg-Prenzlauer-Berg-Ost was transmitted.

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