On October 7, 2023, it has been one year since Hamas’s surprise attack on Israel and subsequent Israeli aggression, and now the war threatens to spill over into the region and spiral out of control.
After 12 months of humanitarian crisis and devastation, the people of Israel are still traumatized and there are daily mass protests, with politicians openly challenging Prime Minister Netanyahu’s belligerent policies.
Israel’s economy is struggling, its tourism industry is at a standstill and its diplomatic relations with the world are fluctuating.
Financial institution Moody’s forecasts Israel’s growth rate to shrink to 1.5 percent in 2024, while 18 percent of Israel’s workforce has been absent from the office during the war, according to The Times of Israel.
According to the Times of Israel, Israel is losing 26.9 million dollars every day during this war.
For these reasons, Israel now stands at a moment that may determine its future.
Middle East expert and Associated Press analyst Dan Perry wrote in The Forward magazine: “Israel’s leadership has reiterated throughout the year that it will not tolerate Hamas in the Gaza Strip.” can do
“He can no longer tolerate the Hezbollah militia on his northern border either. He is fighting on both fronts under the same objectives.’
An Israeli victory over Hamas could open two important doors for the future of the Palestinian people, another Middle East expert said Monday at Duke, Robert Sitloff, writing in Duke Today.
According to Robert Sitloff: ‘This presents a huge opportunity for the Palestinian Authority and its partner role. With Hamas we know there is no chance for diplomacy. A post-Hamas situation will provide a great opportunity for diplomacy.’
He further wrote that ‘I want the Palestinians to have their own land, their own government and live in peace so that their children can grow up under their government.’
He said that ‘Peaceful and normal relations can be done through the agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel and the second Saudi-
‘There is a US mutual defense agreement that could be a way out of war altogether. This is something that the Saudis are also willing to do.’
Shandy Reyes, a Middle East observer, wrote in the Wall Street Journal that ‘Hamas’ attack ended Israel’s two-decade golden age of relative peace, prosperity and growing diplomatic relations. was fixing.’
Israel’s former National Security Adviser Yaakov Amderor has said that ‘wars fought under the guise of security will be part of Israeli policy.
“This new strategy has the potential to affect almost every segment of Israeli society, reshape the geopolitics of the Middle East, and shake up relations with the United States, which will also affect Israel’s diplomatic goals against Iran.” Wants to form a regional alliance with the states.’
Saudi Arabia has said it will not normalize relations with Israel until there is a credible path to a Palestinian state.
It’s an idea that remains unpopular in Israel, and the current right-wing government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will never be ready for it.
Dan Perry writes that the Gaza Strip has been completely destroyed in an effort to eliminate Hamas. Hamas has been punished at a horrendous cost in civilian lives in Gaza.
But Israel has clearly failed to provide any blueprint for what it wants after Hamas in Gaza, and this failure is no accident.
Prime Minister Netanyahu’s government is dependent on hardline parties that are at odds with the Arabs. Such a government clearly cannot make a peace plan.
Smoke rises from the site of an Israeli airstrike in the southern suburbs of Beirut on the morning of October 7, 2024 (AFP).
A vague strategy to oust Hamas without a concrete vision has led to a scenario that will echo a bitter past, the Israeli military occupation of Gaza, possibly leading to a protracted insurgency, Dean said.
This possibility is more than a logistical and security headache. It raises questions about Israel’s democracy and long-term viability as a Jewish state.
The recapture of Gaza would effectively return Israel to a one-state model, which was neither sustainable nor democratic in the long run.
In this scenario, Israel would control the West Bank as well as Gaza. More than 5 million Palestinians live in these two areas.
These Palestinians will not receive Israeli citizenship, nor will they have the right to vote in government elections.
If Israel wants to rule such a large population, it cannot claim to be a democracy.
The goal of this path is diplomatic isolation. In the 1980s, apartheid-ruled South Africa was followed by global economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation, followed by the extraordinary struggle seen here to finally enact equal rights, something that would lead to another democratic state called Palestine. will
Ismail Haniyeh, head of the political wing of the Palestinian group Hamas, addresses a news conference in Tehran March 26, 2024 (Reuters)
Six possible post-war scenarios
Before examining these scenarios, it is important to mention that the question of the post-war situation on Gaza has become an important issue for Israel to answer, especially after the residents of the Gaza Strip The plan to move to Egypt has failed.
In the early days of the war, Israel tried to win the sympathy of the West so that the plan could be implemented, but the plan failed due to Arab and international opposition.
Especially from Egypt which strongly refused to open its land. At the same time, the residents of Gaza also rejected the deportation.
Netanyahu and the Israeli war cabinet focused on destroying all aspects of life in the Gaza Strip, such as targeting water, energy, and sanitation systems, bombing hospitals, schools, churches, and mosques, as well as All government offices, residential buildings, and hundreds of thousands of residential units were reduced to rubble.
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Blocked fuel supplies and limited food and medical aid supplies. This resulted in an attempt to subjugate the life of Gaza to the power of death.
Interestingly, the US administration is trying to develop possible scenarios for the management and control of the Gaza Strip after the war.
During the first months of the war, US Secretary of State Anthony Blanken made several trips to Israel and Middle Eastern countries to discuss the post-war situation.
However, the US is not ready to back down from the Israeli position in any possible way, so their efforts were not well received.
The website Arab Reform Initiative presents six possible scenarios after the ongoing Israeli war on the Gaza Strip:
Israeli control of Hamas
Israeli pressure will not eliminate Hamas, but will force it to recognize Israel, renounce violence, and adopt a political path.
This would weaken Hamas and contribute to the reconstruction of Gaza, while Israel would continue its security measures.
Israel’s ultimate goal is to neutralize Hamas, as it did with the PLO in the 1980s. However, this could lead to internal rifts within Hamas and cause it to lose support from resistance allies such as Iran and Hezbollah.
International and regional monitoring
If Hamas is defeated, the international and Arab countries can take care of the reconstruction and security of Gaza.
However, resistance factions oppose this, and this scenario depends on Palestinian Authority participation and international legitimacy.
Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu addresses a joint session of Congress at the US Capitol in Washington, DC on July 24, 2024 (AFP)
The return of the Palestinian Authority to Gaza
Israel could give the PA control of Gaza after the war, which would regulate security there and potentially pave the way for Palestinian elections and reforms.
However, the political rivalry between Fatah and Hamas could complicate the process, and Israel could use the PA to eliminate remaining pockets of resistance.
Israeli civil administration
Israel will re-establish direct military and civilian control over certain areas of Gaza, as it did before the 1994 Oslo Accords.
However, this would prove to be financially and politically costly for Israel and would face strong resistance. America and Europe have rejected the idea of this new occupation.
A model of tribal relations
Israel could try to establish a local administration in Gaza through local families and tribal leaders to manage affairs under Israeli supervision. But Palestinians and resistance organizations have strongly rejected it as a fraud.
US President Joe Biden addresses a news conference at the end of the 75th NATO Summit at the Walter E. Washington Convention Center in Washington on July 11, 2024 (AFP)
Administration of Egypt
Egypt can step in to secure and rebuild Gaza, as it has past experience and its own strategic interests, such as gas reserves.
Egypt will not directly control Gaza but will gain influence through intelligence services.
However, this scenario is not very attractive to Egypt and the Palestinian Authority will oppose it, as it considers it against a Palestinian state.
Each scenario contains opportunities as well as challenges. Now we have to see which of them will be implemented.
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