2023-10-12 07:25:09
Belgium undertakes to deliver F16s to Ukraine. Well, if all goes well. Surprise decision announced yesterday for the arrival, also surprise, of Volodymyr Zelensky in Brussels. Prime Minister Alexander De Croo had to hide the divisions in his coalition.
A hug
Yes, for any Western leader, receiving a hug from Volodymyr Zelensky is a form of medal, promotion, publicity. Volodymyr Zelensky embodies the courage of Ukrainian resistance to the Russian invasion. He has enormous power of influence, and he has used it very intelligently since the start of the war to obtain support for Ukraine.
To organize a meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky on the sidelines of the NATO summit, Alexander De Croo had to be able to announce something other than the support shown, so far, by Belgium. Support which is in the low average of Western countries, like Hungary, Italy or France, far behind Germany, the Netherlands or Denmark.
A turnaround
This new feature is therefore the sending of F16s to Ukraine, contrary to what has been announced so far. But Alexander De Croo had difficulty hiding the conditions associated with this decision.
Two conditions, at least, will be essential. First, the F35 will have to be delivered on time. We are talking regarding May 2024 for the first planes, but they will remain in the United States for months for pilot training. They will arrive in operational capacity sometime in 2025, at which point, if any F16s are still serviceable, they can be donated. We are talking regarding 2 to 4 devices.
The other condition is that the decision will come back to the next government. This is when things will have to be decided. This is democracy, says Alexander De Croo. He forgets to say that it is very common for a government to commit another government with a decision. The current government might have engaged Belgium and formally made the decision, even if it were invalidated by the next one. He mightn’t do it. He was only able to agree, between the right wing and left wing, on a non-binding promise to deliver F16s.
The statement from the Minister of Defense said: “from 2025, Defense may offer to supply F-16s to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, as part of the process of replacing the Belgian F-16 fleet with F-35 fighter jets.“The defense may offer to provide. This is the true nature of our promise.
We will note the opportunistic 180° change in the position of the socialist minister who until now said that it was not possible.
We will also note the equally opportunistic communication from the MR which says that it is thanks to his pressure that the minister changed her mind, while the decision was mainly played out elsewhere, in the diplomatic pressure of the allies.
A rise in power
That said, even though there is a lot of communication, this promise on the F16 is important. Firstly because it is hard to imagine a future government suddenly refusing to deliver available F16s if Ukraine is unfortunately still at war. And even if it is no longer, it will need Western support for its fleet of fighter planes. For Belgium, this is indeed an escalation in its commitment to Ukraine.
The other announcement, less spectacular, but just as important, is the announcement of a fund of nearly 1.7 billion euros resulting from the taxation of frozen Russian assets. It is also the announcement that the Belgian industry Sabena Engineering, in particular, will take charge of the maintenance of the F16s given by the Danes, the Norwegians and the Dutch to the Ukrainians. We often forget it, but Belgium has the largest European F16 maintenance center in Europe in Charleroi. Because in the 1970s, Belgium not only bought F16s but also negotiated the assembly of planes for other countries. We assembled a total of 222 F16s and modernized 1200 of them. The contract of the century has beautiful remains.
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