Belgium’s Political Landscape: The Rise of the Far Right and Potential Government Formation in 2024

2023-10-03 09:40:21

Inexorably, Belgium is preparing, like other countries, to see the far right constitute the leading political force in Parliament.

The question is no longer debated in Flanders, it seems completely foreign in Wallonia or in Brussels, where we do not see the problem coming. A bit of political fiction…

June 10, 2024

As is tradition (this is not written anywhere, like the entire procedure for forming a federal government, moreover), the day following the election, the King receives the party presidents one by one. Usually starting with the one that came first. There you have it, Tom Van Grieken received at the Palace of Brussels, just following Alexander De Croo, who officially came to present the resignation of his government and left to manage current affairs (for a long time?).

Indeed, for more than two years, all opinion surveys have been pointing in the same direction: Vlaams Belang is ahead, sometimes well ahead, of the other political groups in the north of the country and is on the way to becoming the first party of the country in terms of deputies in the House. Even if eight months from the deadline, a certain reserve remains.

In the same vein, it should be noted that the second party president to cross the gates of the royal palace might well be Raoul Hedebouw (PTB/PvdA)!

A complete upheaval of our political reality.

Government training

In federated entities, the rule (also unwritten) is that it is the party that comes first which is responsible for trying to constitute a majority. In Flanders, Tom Van Grieken might therefore well be the one.

At the federal level, the rule is less systematic but all the party presidents who come first are generally offered a run. Even if it means proving through the absurd that it is impossible for them to succeed.

In 2019, for the first time (since Léon Degrelle in 1936), a president of a far-right party crossed the gates of the royal palace to be received by the head of state.

At that time, it was claimed that Flemish public opinion would not have understood that the second party in Flanders was not invited.

What will it be in 2024? A recent survey shows that the majority of Flemish public opinion (52%) is in favor of a VB-N-VA coalition.

Will King Philippe be forced to appoint Tom Van Grieken, president of the Kingdom’s leading party? See all French-speaking presidents refuse to meet this singular informant, thus further entrenching the division of the country. Answer at the beginning of next summer.

@PhWalkowiak


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