2023-11-13 14:46:00
New week, new weather report, but nothing new in the forecast: we expect rain, and more rain until the end of the week. We will still have to endure the elements, following a day on Monday marked by a new yellow alert from the IRM in the face of wind gusts of up to 80 km/h. “We are still expecting a lot of rain, at least until the weekend,” regrets Pascal Mormal, meteorologist at IRM. We are talking regarding 50 liters per square meter in 48 hours in most regions which adds to totals which are already impressive. In certain corners of the Ardennes, we have exceeded 350 liters per square meter for a month. Fortunately, the situation is less critical than in Nord-Pas-de-Calais, but we are observing, in Poperinge for example, quantities of rain three times greater than expected.”
What saves Belgium, even though it borders the most affected areas in France, is the flat terrain of the coastal region. “In the region of Boulogne-sur-Mer, Calais or the Côte d’Opale, the valleys are more steep and runoff is therefore greater. This phenomenon is also linked to the temperature of the Channel, very high for the season. The low-pressure flow affecting a large part of Europe obviously doesn’t help anything,” he explains.
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But to return to Belgium, the news might be (a little) better at the end of the weekend. “We can hope for a small improvement next week, but this still requires confirmation,” says the meteorologist. An anticyclone should settle in our regions and would cut off this uninterrupted procession of depressions that we have been experiencing for a month. That doesn’t mean it won’t rain at all, but a lot less.”
The downside is that the coolness will return, as is often the case when the weather is nice in winter. “This Monday, we observed around 15 degrees in Uccle, which is largely excess for the season. Next week, we will fall back to around 8 or 9 degrees, with cooler nights and maybe even a few snowflakes over the Ardennes.”
The first frosts still seem far away, however, for the center of the country. “The mercury fell to 3.3 degrees this weekend in Uccle, but there is no immediate sign of frost in the center of the country. It’s not uncommon to wait until the end of November for this to happen, in fact. But given the conditions halfway through the month and what is forecast – even the slight coolness of next week, the month of November should also end with above average temperatures.”
As far as seasonal forecasts are concerned, winter still promises to be milder than average. “We arrive at a positive anomaly of +1 to +1.5 degrees in December, all the same. This month should be the warmest of the three, since we expect a slight positive anomaly in January, and a month around normal in February. As far as precipitation is concerned, the winter looks set to be rainier than average.”
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