2024-08-15 21:00:00
At 5 pm on the 15th, the government ended the Nankai Trough earthquake special warning (major earthquake warning) that was in place in response to the magnitude 6 earthquake that occurred in Miyazaki Prefecture on the 8th. The purpose of the first special message was to “use uncertain information to prevent disasters,” but it raised questions about the way it was communicated. (Ozawa Keiichi)
◆The Prime Minister ordered verification and the guidelines need to be reviewed
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida instructed Minister of Disaster Prevention Yoshifumi Matsumura on the 15th to study this series of response measures. Based on the verification results, the government plans to revise guidelines to instruct the public, businesses and others on how to respond to unusual information. “I feel again that it is crucial to make the content of information disseminated easy for the public to understand and to cooperate regularly with business organizations,” Mr. Matsumura told a news conference.
This temporary information is developed to replace the “warning statement” in the “Law on Special Measures for Major Earthquakes” (“Major Earthquake Law”) based on earthquake predictions. Predicting earthquakes becomes impossible, and predictions based on statistics are fraught with uncertainty. The government issues information, but specific measures are decided by local governments, businesses and individuals.
◆Uncommunicated “continuation of social activities”
The Japan Meteorological Agency and the Cabinet Office pointed out at a press conference on the 15th that the purpose of continuing social activities for earthquake prevention may not be clearly conveyed in the announcement on the 8th. This does not exist.
The person in front of the announcement on the 8th was not a government official, but seismologist Nao Hirata, chairman of the “Nankai Trough Seismic Assessment Research Group”. While asking about countermeasures, he said, “From a seismological point of view, it is extremely likely that the intensity of an earthquake will be several times greater.” “Reconfirm daily earthquake preparations,” “Check evacuation routes and go to shelters.” ” he replied gently.
At the end of the call, there was no review meeting and Mr. Hirata did not hold a press conference. If there is no call, it is expected to end in a week.
◆Reason for uncertainty…cost estimate is also needed
“We need to strike a balance between the effectiveness of providing information and the risk of ‘missing out,'” said Professor Hayashi Ji-sung of Kansai University’s School of Social Security. The warning caused a variety of impacts, including a series of trip cancellations and rail companies Slow down operations. In the past, the government has estimated that if the “alert declaration” for the Tokai Earthquake is lifted, economic losses will be “hundreds of billions of yen per day,” but there is no estimate of special information.
Hayashi pointed out, “It has always been taboo to consider costs in terms of disaster prevention. Provisional information is a disaster prevention action using uncertain evidence, so it is necessary to verify its effectiveness and side effects.”
Nankai Trough EarthquakeAn earthquake that occurs along a trough that extends from Suruga Bay to the seafloor along the coast of Hyuga Nada. The government estimates there is a 70% to 80% chance of a magnitude 8 or 9 earthquake occurring approximately every 100 to 150 years within 30 years, but scientific evidence is lacking. The government has announced that as many as 323,000 people are expected to die in 2012.
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◆Expert: “There are no signs of earthquakes”
The government’s call for high-alert disaster prevention measures based on the Nankai Trough Earthquake Emergency Message (Major Earthquake Warning) has ended. Shinji Toda, a professor of seismic geology at Tohoku University, said that although residents’ awareness of emergency messages has increased, “some people mistakenly believe that unconventional information will always be released before a major earthquake” and “the possibility of an earthquake is very high.” big.
On August 15, a flag with the word “Prohibited” was hung at the entrance to the beach in Hiratsuka City, Kanagawa Prefecture.
In response to the emergency message, measures such as closing beaches and canceling fireworks displays were taken. Professor Toda noted that “we may have overreacted,” adding that “the possibility of a major earthquake will not disappear in a week.” It is important to always consider where to evacuate in the event of an earthquake. Very important,” he said.
◆Reactions will vary depending on the person who needs support and the person who is healthy.
Kazunari Ohara, a professor of observational seismology at the Institute of Seismology of the University of Tokyo and a member of the Japan Meteorological Agency’s “Nankai Trough Earthquake Assessment Research Group” said: “During the typhoon, it can be predicted that even if a major earthquake does not occur in the next week, it is not “missing” “. “
Regarding this provisional information, he said: “I hope you will consider this as an ‘exercise’ to check your preparedness so that you can immediately respond to earthquakes.” How specific responses should be made may not be clear yet. Responses may differ between older people and others who need evacuation assistance and those who are able-bodied. “We need to examine how information is provided and take more detail. respond. ” (Masui Nozomi, Sakakihara Tomoyasu)
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