Totally sharing the assessments of the other seismologists, Yoshinori Moriuaki, emphasized according to Milliyet, that “an earthquake can happen at any time in the Marmara region”. “Be ready,” he said and added: “I said that an earthquake might happen in the following areas: Canakkale, Inegyol, Bursa, Badirma and Balikesir.
Yoshinori Moriwaki pointed out that the 4.9-magnitude tremor came from a fault that had previously produced a 7.2-magnitude earthquake half a century ago. “These earthquakes are an indication of accumulated energy in the region,” he emphasized.
It is recalled that according to seismology professor Sukru Ersoy, as well as other Turkish seismologists, the 4.9 Richter earthquake was not caused by the northern branch of the Anatolian fault, which until today was the most likely to produce a strong earthquake of more than 7 Richter in Istanbul, but from the fault in South Marmara.
“While we were talking regarding the north, we neglected the south. We were very busy talking regarding the northern branch, which would greatly affect Constantinople. We know that there have been major earthquakes in the area between Bursa and Canakkale, both at sea and on land. These are repeated earthquakes. Therefore, I would like to note that it is an equally dangerous spot,” said the Turkish seismologist.
The seismologist Gerasimos Chouliaras also took a position in the public debate regarding an impending earthquake in Istanbul of more than 7 Richter. The director of research at the Geodynamic Institute of the Athens Observatory downplayed the possibility in part, claiming that based on data from the earthquake forecasting application Nowcasting, “the probability of an earthquake greater than 6.5 on the Richter scale is only 43.6%.”
For his part, the seismologist Gerasimos Papadopoulos, speaking to ERT, said regarding the predictions for an imminent big earthquake in the Istanbul area that “this has been a known scientific result for years”.
And he explained: “We know that there is a seismic gap in the Sea of Marmara and that this seismic gap is a future risk for Istanbul. Because this gap is located close to the city, close to all the satellite cities of Istanbul and threatens regarding 20 million inhabitants”.
“It’s an old scientific result, which says that in 2000 when the studies were published, it said that in the next thirty years, – now we’re regarding 25 years later, with a very high probability – the next magnitude 7.5 earthquake will happen once more. In the current period, we do not have any additional indication that shows us something more”, he underlined.
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