2023-10-01 02:23:00
“Sondhi” warns Prime Minister Settha and Energy Minister to prepare to deal with the acute oil shortage crisis around the world. After Russia and Saudi Arabia Extend the time to reduce production capacity further. causing oil stocks to decrease rapidly The International Energy Agency expects a shortage of 1.2 million barrels per day by the end of this year. As a result, the price of crude oil surged to more than $100 per barrel. Aggravating the Thai economy and the world economy
in the list “Talk regarding everything with Sondhi” or “Sondhi Talk” Friday, September 29, 2023, Mr. Sondhi Limthongkul, founder of the Manager newspaper, issued a warning to the government. Both Mr. Settha Thavisin, Prime Minister, and Mr. Peeraphan Saleerathaviphak, Minister of Energy, regarding oil management We have to be very careful or else critical problems will follow. The government recently solved the problem by lowering the price of oil. Use the excise tax reduction mechanism and the fuel fund to manage it. The Cabinet approved the reduction of excise tax on diesel fuel by 2.50 baht per liter for 3 months, starting from September 20 until December 31, 2023.
But such measures are a temporary solution. It is an “illusion” because the government solved the immediate problem by reducing excise taxes. Take oil fund money and cover it. It’s a temporary relief. But when excise taxes are reduced, the government lacks revenue. Meanwhile, Thailand’s oil fund will continue to be in a negative state.
By the numbers as of September 24, 2023, the oil fund’s status is negative at over 64,400 million baht. It should soon exceed over 100 billion baht. And the government will have to put money into it. When combined with a reduction in excise taxes in order to get naked and save face first. It makes it seem like hell is coming soon, probably not until the end of this year.
Mr. Sondhi said Reducing the price of oil Make the fund status Must be negative, increasing to more than 16,000 million baht per month, remaining negative for another 3 months, plus another 64,000 million, to 100 billion.
The oil problem may not be well known to the general public and the media. But people in the energy industry are all tense because they know that the worst is regarding to happen, which is the most severe oil shock within 10 years by the end of this year.
Keep an eye on the end of the year when the world is in an Oil Shock situation.
On September 13, 2023, the same day as the first economic cabinet meeting, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that by 2024, crude oil inventories will drop significantly. As a result, the oil market may face its most severe supply shortage in more than a decade at the end of 2023 due to production cuts by major producers such as Saudi Arabia and Russia.
The oil market is expected to face a shortfall of 1.2 million barrels per day. In the second half of the year following Moscow and Riyadh announced plans to extend export cuts. and production during 2023
On September 12, 2023, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries or OPEC stated in another report that The shortfall might reach 3.3 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter if OPEC+ leaders maintain production cuts.
Last week also Russia announced that It will extend the voluntary oil export cut by another 300,000 barrels per day. Russia has announced a suspension of diesel and gasoline exports around the world in order to maintain stability within the country. But it can be exported to 4 member states of the Soviet Union: Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan.
For this reason, some analysts have expressed concerns that Such events make it difficult to assess the global oil situation, with warnings that many countries may be affected in their ability to secure fuel before the winter break. And there may be a more serious shortage in the 4th quarter.
Russia’s export ban This is in line with Saudi Arabia complying with and extending its voluntary production cut of 1 million barrels per day until December 2023.
Numbers of the world’s largest oil exporting countries in 2022, with Saudi Arabia ranking number 1 in crude oil exports, while Russia is number 3.
In addition to reducing production capacity and prohibits exports from the world’s top 3 major oil producing and exporting countries such as Saudi Arabia and Russia. The IEA also warns that From the above reasons, it will result in Crude oil stocks will be severely depleted by 2024, resulting in oil prices falling into a state of shock or Oil Shock.
However, it is believed that China will not have a problem because it purchases oil from Russia to stockpile every day. If Russia does not sanction China, China will be spared, but the ASEAN countries will be hurt.
If we have good relations with Iran and with Russia. Because these two countries like Thailand very much. want to be friendly with us Instead, we follow Western Washington and the EU’s boycott of both Russia and Iran.
Last Friday, September 22, 2023, the global Brent crude oil price surged above $93 per barrel. Meanwhile, the price of US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has also surged above $90 per barrel. Therefore, it may be at the end of this year or early next year. Crude oil prices may exceed $100 per barrel. It might certainly be as high as $120.
For this reason, analyst firms JPMorgan Chase & Co. and RBC Capital Markets predict that Oil prices have risen more than 25% since the end of June 2023 amid increasing global demand for fuel. and may rise above $100 per barrel. and may even rise to $150 per barrel within 3 years.
Such oil price problems will affect and aggravate the Thai and world economies by
1. China’s economy still faces problems in China’s real estate sector, where there is a large surplus of construction. In addition, the problem of bad debt This caused the Chinese economy to slow down significantly. And it may take a long time to fix.
2. The Chinese economy is slowing down. It will have an economic impact on the Asian region. Especially the Thai economy is quite dependent on the Chinese economy. Both export and tourism
3.In addition, from elections and government transitions As a result, government consumption spending decreased by 4.3%, continuing from a decrease of 6.3% in the previous quarter.
4. The overall picture of the Thai economy this year is quite poor. and is likely to expand lower than the Bank of Thailand’s forecast After the second quarter of this year The Thai economy expanded only 1.8%.
5. Importantly, exports this year will be negative. Since the beginning of the year, exports have been negative -5.5%, and tourism that will be lower than the set target will cause the Thai economic expansion to decrease significantly. For this reason, the Settha government must stimulate tourism. Visa exemptions for tourists from China and Kazakhstan starting Monday, September 25.
from the problem of acute oil shortage The price of oil will rise at the end of 2023 and may continue to rise until next year, 2024, which is certain. Rising oil prices have a direct effect on inflation. Because oil is the main cost of transportation. In the production of various goods, the increased costs will increase the price of the goods. Until leading to a situation that affects the price of products and the cost of living will definitely increase further.
These are economic warning signs that need to be watched closely. and prepare to deal with it early
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