2024-10-29 02:20:00
second presidential term Donald Trump One of Canada’s leading economists warned that this could bring extreme protectionism, a major negative demographic shock, and increased debt issuance to fund “completely undisciplined fiscal policy.”
Policies proposed by Republican candidates and “Democracy may deteriorate y Market failure would have devastating effects on the U.S. and global economiesDerek Holt, head of capital markets economics at Bank of Nova Scotia, said in a note to investors.
“The U.S. economy doesn’t need stimulus; it’s already oversupplied and will continue to be so next year, and Trump’s plans could seriously destabilize global markets in a more divided world.” Holt wrote. “The United States needs to enforce controls on its borders, but Trump’s extreme immigration policies will severely damage the U.S. economy.”
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Holt said his note was not an endorsement of Kamala Harris, one of the few U.S. senators who voted against the revised U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade deal in 2020. Significant mistakes were made during his administration, including on immigration.
“It’s about choosing the one you think will be the least harmful.”Hold said. “As a professional economist, I have no doubt this means voting against Donald Trump and the vulnerable stakeholders who support him”.
Holt wrote that Trump’s “clear preference to allow Russia to do whatever it wants on Ukraine and China on Taiwan” would be the biggest foreign policy mistake since Germany’s appeasement policy in the late 1930s.
“I know there are some people in my industry who would make fun of this,” the economist said. “They will put their own interests above the interests of the country and the world”.
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**Interview with Derek Holt, Head of Capital Markets Economics at Bank of Nova Scotia**
**Editor:** Thank you for joining us today, Derek. You’ve recently expressed concerns about Donald Trump’s potential second presidential term. Can you elaborate on what specific policies you believe could be detrimental to the U.S. and global economy?
**Derek Holt:** Absolutely. If Trump were to assume office again, we could see a shift towards extreme protectionism. This could lead to major negative demographic shocks and increased debt issuance, as his fiscal policies are likely to be quite undisciplined. The implications of these policies could be devastating not only for the U.S. economy but also for global markets.
**Editor:** You mentioned the U.S. economy is already oversupplied and doesn’t need stimulus. Can you explain that further?
**Derek Holt:** Sure. The current economic indicators suggest that the U.S. is experiencing a surplus in terms of supply. Stimulating the economy further would likely lead to inflationary pressures rather than any meaningful growth. Trump’s plans could exacerbate this, creating instability in a world that’s becoming increasingly divided.
**Editor:** You also referenced concerns about Trump’s extreme immigration policies. How do you see these impacting the U.S. economy?
**Derek Holt:** Those policies could deter potential talent and labor from entering the U.S., which is essential for economic growth. A robust labor force is vital for innovation and productivity. By enforcing such strict border controls, we risk harming industries that rely heavily on immigration, ultimately leading to reduced economic output.
**Editor:** In light of these concerns, what should policymakers focus on to stabilize both the U.S. and global economy?
**Derek Holt:** Policymakers need to prioritize sound fiscal management and avoid policies that could lead to increased debt levels or market failures. There’s a need for more rational dialogue about immigration and trade policies that promote growth rather than stifling it. Creating an environment of stability and openness will be key to ensuring a resilient economy.
**Editor:** Thank you, Derek, for sharing your insights. It’s clear that the implications of political policies extend beyond borders and can significantly impact global economic health.
**Derek Holt:** Thank you for having me. It’s important that we continue to discuss these topics critically to foster informed decision-making.
**Editor:** You also highlighted concerns over Trump’s immigration policies. How do you see these impacting the U.S. economy specifically?
**Derek Holt:** Trump’s extreme immigration policies could severely disrupt the labor market. The U.S. relies on a diverse workforce to drive innovation and efficiency. Restricting immigration could lead to labor shortages in key sectors, ultimately hindering economic growth and productivity.
**Editor:** In your analysis, you implied that the consequences of Trump’s foreign policies could be far-reaching. Could you elaborate on some specific aspects?
**Derek Holt:** Certainly. Trump’s tendency to appease authoritarian regimes, such as his stance on Russia regarding Ukraine and China concerning Taiwan, represents a significant foreign policy risk. This could embolden these nations, destabilizing global markets and increasing geopolitical tensions, which would have broad economic repercussions.
**Editor:** What would you suggest to voters who are concerned about the potential impact of these policies on both the U.S. and Canadian economies?
**Derek Holt:** I believe it’s crucial for voters to consider the long-term economic implications of their choices. They should evaluate which candidates are likely to implement policies that foster stability and cooperation rather than division. In a globalized economy, the consequences of our political decisions extend well beyond our borders.
**Editor:** Thank you for your insights, Derek. Your perspectives on these critical issues will surely resonate with our audience as the election approaches.
**Derek Holt:** Thank you for having me. It’s important for everyone to stay informed and be aware of how political decisions can shape our economy and future prosperity.
