Western countries have expressed their support for Israel after Iran’s drone attack, they are watching the developments in Tel Aviv and what decision Benjamin Netanyahu’s government will make regarding retaliation in Tehran.
In this context, the BBC with its analysis attempts to capture the delicate position in which the USA and the West which on the one hand condemn the attack, but on the other, certainly want to avoid further escalation of the conflict, let alone their participation in a total war in the Middle East.
His war cabinet Israel used a tried and trusted phrase to describe his next moves against him Iran. Israel will respond “in the manner and at the time of our choosing,” the war council said.
Benny Gantz, the opposition leader who joined the war cabinet after the Hamas attacks on October 7, stressed the unity of Israel and its Western allies. “Israel against Iran, the world against Iran. This is the result. This is a strategic achievement that we must capitalize on for Israel’s security,” he said.
The words Gantz used did not rule out an attack on an Iranian target or an overt Israeli first strike inside Iran (Israel has repeatedly hit Iran’s nuclear program, with cyberattacks and assassinations of officials and scientists). But there may be time for the diplomatic response the president desires Joe Biden from the meeting he has convened of the G7, the richest Western countries.
Despite the fact that Iran had verbally attacked Israel several times over the military operation in Gaza that followed the deadly terrorist attack by Hamas on Israeli soil, the last straw that “pushed” Tehran to carry out the first direct strike on Israel was the bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria. The air strike, on April 1, killed a senior general, the number two, and other aides.
The decision to attack was not coordinated with the Americans. Israel must have assessed the opportunity to kill senior commanders of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a risk worth taking.
As the BBC and international affairs editor Jeremy Bowen reports, Israel has publicly offered an unconvincing argument that the presence of senior military officers in diplomatic facilities made the building a legitimate target. More significant is the fact that Iran chose to interpret the airstrike as an attack on its soil.
Very quickly, it was clear that Iran would respond. Iran’s message was conveyed not by nods and winks, but by clear statements from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Israel, the US and their allies had ample warning. Mr. Biden managed to return to the White House from a weekend trip to the state of Delaware. Iran chose to open the attack not with hypersonic ballistic missiles, but with slow drones, which were on radar screens for two hours as they approached their targets.
It was a bigger attack than many analysts had expected from Israel’s bitterest enemy—reason enough for many Israelis to expect a response from their side. For the first time, Iran launched weapons – about 300 drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles – from its soil against Israel. Almost all of them were stopped by air defense – Israel’s own considerable capabilities, bolstered by the US, UK and Jordan.
Their allies, especially the US, helped them immensely during the night. President Joe Biden repeated his promise of “ironclad” security for Israel, essentially saying “we’ve got you covered.”
In return, the Americans want restraint from Israel. President Biden sent to the Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a clear message. Iran’s attack repelled, Israel has a victory, so don’t escalate the matter further by responding with military strikes on Iranian soil.
A senior Western diplomat told the BBC it was now vital to draw a line, stop further escalation. Drawing a line seems to be Iran’s hope as well.
It has signaled that Israel’s attack on Damascus has been answered – it will only escalate further if attacked again. The Iranians appear to want to defuse two weeks of crisis and threats that began with the Israeli strike on their diplomatic compound in Damascus.
Perhaps Iran hoped to do more damage than it did. Or he may have been open about his plans to give Israel less reason to strike back.
Iran wanted to restore the sense of deterrence it lost when Israel attacked its consulate in Damascus. This may be more difficult since Israel and its allies have stopped almost all missiles fired at them. It was not a full-scale attack on Israel.
Iran has been building up its missile forces for years. He could have fired many more guns. Hezbollah in Lebanon would have engaged in an all-out attack, and did not. Lebanon’s militia and political movement is Iran’s strongest ally, with an arsenal of missiles and rockets.
Prime Minister Netanyahu could take some satisfaction from the way Iran’s attack kept Gaza off the headlines. It gives him a respite from the humanitarian disaster and Israel’s failure to achieve its war goals of freeing the hostages and crushing Hamas.
A few days ago, international attention was focused on the rift between Mr. Biden and Mr. Netanyahu over the famine caused by Israel’s blockade of Gaza. Now they talk about unity.
Mr. Netanyahu can also present himself as a decisive and reasonable leader, the protector of his people, even though many of his enemies in Israel want him out of office. They say his hasty, insecure policies before October 7 led Hamas to believe Israel was vulnerable.
According to the protothema, what hasn’t changed is that Americans want to find a way to stop the slide toward total war in the Middle East. The red lines have been crossed – Israel’s attack on diplomatic space and Iran’s direct attack on Israel. Immediately, some on the Israeli right demanded an answer. These appeals will not stop.
The job of diplomats at the G7 will be to prevent the region from entering a damaging wider conflict. The slide has been slow but steady and in one direction, toward destruction, in the six months since Hamas attacked Israel.
If Israel follows President Biden’s advice not to strike back, the Middle East may be able to breathe a sigh of relief. It is by no means certain that this is the end of this dangerous episode.
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