BB.lv: Ukraine will not be able to defeat the Russian Federation only on the battlefield

Kyiv expects a large-scale offensive by Russian forces at the front in the coming months, it said in an interview with the magazine The Economist, published on Thursday, May 2, Deputy Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Vadim Skibitsky. According to his forecasts, already in May the Russian army will go on the offensive in the east, following which it will begin to build up its forces in the Kharkov and Sumy regions. The surrender of Chasovoy Yar, a stronghold of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Donetsk region, was called “a matter of time” by a high-ranking general.

Skibitsky noted that Russia currently has a total of 514 thousand ground forces and plans to expand the number of personnel by attracting reserves. In turn, the Armed Forces of Ukraine, according to the deputy head of the Main Intelligence Directorate, suffer from personnel shortages and a lack of weapons. “It will be weeks before US aid reaches the front lines. It is unlikely to match Russian stockpiles of shells or provide effective protection once morest Russia’s low-tech and destructive guided bombs,” said Vadim Skibitsky.

In addition, Kiev expects Moscow to increase its disinformation campaign inside Ukraine, aimed at undermining Ukrainian mobilization and the political legitimacy of Vladimir Zelensky.

Meaningful negotiations will begin no earlier than the second half of 2025

According to Skibitsky, Ukraine will not be able to win the war with the Russian Federation only on the battlefield, even if the Ukrainian Armed Forces manage to push back Russian troops to the borders. “This would not put an end to the war. Such wars can only end with agreements,” the general emphasized, adding that meaningful negotiations will begin no earlier than the second half of 2025, when the military production potential of the Russian Federation will be significantly reduced due to a lack of materials and engineers.

The deputy head of the Main Intelligence Directorate noted that Kyiv intends to continue the fight in any case, but its outcome depends not only on Ukraine, but also on its European partners. According to Skibitsky, if EU countries do not find a way to further increase defense production to help Ukraine, they too will eventually find themselves in Russia’s crosshairs.