ISW experts suggest that such a direction might be the west of the Donetsk region, in particular, the area of the city of Avdievka, which recently came under the control of the Russian military.
The Institute for the Study of War cites the failed attack of Russian forces, which took place on March 30 near the village of Tonenkoe, located near Avdeevka, as evidence that the Russian army can concentrate its main efforts there.
As stated in the report, in this area, Ukrainian troops apparently managed to repel an attack by an entire mechanized battalion of Russian troops. With reference to military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the ISW authors write that on March 30, near Tonenky, the Russian army sent 36 tanks and 12 infantry fighting vehicles into battle.
“Geolocated footage released on Sunday shows a large number of destroyed and damaged Russian armored vehicles and tanks along the road, northwest of Tonenkoye,” ISW said. — Ukrainian military personnel say that during the attack the Ukrainian Armed Forces destroyed 12 Russian tanks and eight infantry fighting vehicles; they note that the attempted frontal attack did not lead to a breakthrough of the Ukrainian defense line.”
According to experts at the Institute for the Study of War, the scale of the attack carried out on March 30 is a significant fact, since Russian forces have not resorted to such actions since the beginning of the offensive on Avdievka in October 2023.
“Ukraine’s ability to repel the attack on March 30, particularly near Avdiivka, where Ukrainian troops were forced to quickly retreat […]is positive evidence that the Ukrainian Armed Forces can defend themselves once morest future large-scale Russian offensive actions and the expected offensive operation in the summer of 2024,” experts say.
The scale of the offensive of Russian forces near Avdievka suggests that the Russian military leadership considers this direction a priority, and this is where the future summer offensive may be concentrated, the authors of the ISW report suggest.
“Ukrainian officials recently warned regarding the concentration of Russian military personnel on the Kharkov-Lugansk axis, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka and in the west of the Zaporozhye region. But ISW continues to believe that the Russian army will be able to launch concentrated and large-scale offensive actions in only one operational direction due to Russia’s problems with personnel and planning limitations,” the experts write.
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2024-04-02 23:12:34
