BB.lv: Russia is achieving tactical, not strategic, successes in Ukraine

According to the expert, Russia has found a “window of opportunity” to strike Ukraine’s energy systems and is shooting indiscriminately at both military and civilian targets.

The situation in Ukraine shows that its air defense capabilities are insufficient – the capital Kyiv is somewhat secure, but there are big problems at the front, and they were forced to withdraw these systems from the front and move them inland. Meanwhile, Russia is “knocking out” Ukraine’s air defense systems with massive fire, looking for weak points.

Commenting on Ukraine’s appeal to the West with a request to provide it with 25 Patriot air defense systems, Slaidins concluded that this will be a long struggle, since there are not many of these systems in the West and the countries themselves need them.

Slaidins assessed that, despite widespread rhetoric, Russia has not currently made much progress on the front, and the successes achieved since last fall are more tactical than strategic. He also disagrees with speculation that the current situation at the front indicates that Russia is moving towards victory. There are currently two main points on the front where Russian forces are concentrated, where the aggressor is seeking to penetrate deep into Ukraine in both places and then try to build on the success.

Assessing the Russian threat to Kharkov, Slaidins currently assesses an attack by ground forces on this large city as unlikely, but missile strikes are expected with the aim of creating a humanitarian crisis in the city, making it virtually impossible to live there, and provoking protests from people, with the help of which the Russians will try to force Ukraine to negotiate.

Commenting on assumptions that a large-scale Russian offensive once morest Ukraine is expected this summer, the expert said that it is actually already underway, so he does not expect any significant intensification.

Slaidins emphasized that the West should be more focused in supporting Ukraine, since there are now more words than deeds, and it is the West’s inability to agree on support that worries the expert most.