Bayesian Beliefs: A Historical Odyssey of Triumphs and Setbacks

Bayesian Beliefs: A Historical Odyssey of Triumphs and Setbacks
Gabriel Imperial

September 09, 2024

Paolo Sottocorona clarifies and dispels any doubts. Words have been said about the sinking of the Bayesian yacht that were a bit “idle” from both a nautical and meteorological point of view. In his space on L’Aria che Tira on La 7, the expert wanted to bring order to the story and definitively explain what happened to the sailing ship that sank off the coast of Palermo and the difference between a whirlwind and a downburst. “Typically, the break in the summer is characterized by storms and whirlwinds. In these last few weeks, there has been talk of a dramatic event,” Sottocorona begins, “everything and the opposite of everything has been talked about. Let’s put the concepts in order and then see how these can provide a possible interpretation of what happened.”

Bayesian Beliefs: A Historical Odyssey of Triumphs and Setbacks

“A thunderstorm forms because there is air that rises very quickly and then spreads out,” he explains. “In the mature phase, that is, when it is very developed, descending currents begin to form, so the air first rises, rises, then at the edges, externally, it begins to descend.” “These falling, descending winds are called downbursts,” Sottocorona continues his explanation. “They can be very intense. This means that they can reach speeds of up to 100 km/h, just like the descending ones. 100 km/h vertically is a lot. That’s why airplanes, even modern and robust ones, don’t pass through a thunderstorm. Because going from a normal situation to a vertical wind of 100 km/h creates decidedly dangerous stresses.”

Commander Cutfield investigated for the sinking of the super-sailing vessel Bayesian

Here is the first clarification: “There is a different phenomenon which is that of the whirlwind. Do you want to call it a tornado? It is the same. Do you want to call it a waterspout? If it is on the sea it is fine, it is the same phenomenon in different positions – he clarifies – What happens inside the whirlwind? The same thing we have seen: updrafts then downdrafts, only they are much stronger”. Is it possible to predict a whirlwind? Another clarification: “We do not know exactly how or when it happens because otherwise we could predict the whirlwinds which instead cannot be predicted – he explains – it has been said ‘you could predict whirlwinds’ but you cannot predict them. Strong storms are predicted which may or may not cause whirlwinds”.

Avalanche of Investigators on the Bayesian Shipwreck: All the Hypothesized Errors

Finally Sottocorona explains the effects of the tornado and how these can explain what happened in Palermo: “This is one of the dramatic photos of the so-called Vaia storm – he explains showing the devastation of the tornado that hit the Alps in 2018 – At 1 meter, 2 meters away the trees have all fallen. Do you see the other photo? The trees all standing up to a certain point, then all fallen. This means that in the space of 2 meters, 5 meters the wind speed of the tornado went from 100 km per hour to 300 km per hour, maybe 400. Do you understand that the effects on the earth, on the water, on the boats, can be immensely different in the space of 5 meters, 10 meters?”.

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2024-09-12 00:56:51

Here are some People Also Ask (PAA) related questions for the title **”The Mysterious ​Sinking of the Bayesian Yacht: ​Unraveling the Truth”**:

The Mysterious​ Sinking of​ the Bayesian Yacht: Unraveling the Truth

On ⁤August 23, 2024, the sailing ‍world ​was left stunned⁣ when the 56m Perini Navi yacht, ‍Bayesian, sank off the coast of Palermo, ⁣Italy, leaving 7 people‌ missing ⁣and ‍15‌ rescued [[1]]. The incident has raised many⁢ questions, with experts and‌ investigators struggling to piece together the events that led ‍to the tragic​ sinking.

The⁣ Speed of the Sinking

One of the most baffling aspects of the incident is the speed⁣ at which ⁢the⁤ Bayesian sank. According to experts, the yacht went⁣ down in an astonishing 60 seconds‍ [[2]]. This has left many‍ in ⁣the maritime community scratching their heads, trying to understand what could have caused such​ a catastrophic failure.

The Role of Weather‌ Conditions

Paolo Sottocorona, a meteorological expert, has shed ⁤some ⁣light on the ⁤possible weather conditions that may have contributed to the sinking of the Bayesian. According to Sottocorona, the summer break is characterized by storms and ​whirlwinds, which can lead‍ to the formation of thunderstorms. These thunderstorms can produce downbursts, intense descending ‍winds that can‍ reach ⁣speeds of up ‍to 100 km/h [[3]].

The Difference ​Between Whirlwinds ‍and Downbursts

Sottocorona explains that ⁤whirlwinds and downbursts are often confused, but they are ‍two distinct⁤ phenomena. Whirlwinds are rotating columns of air that form during ⁣thunderstorms, while downbursts are intense descending winds that can‍ reach speeds of up to 100 km/h. These descending winds can be particularly ‍dangerous, as they ⁣can cause significant damage ⁢and even bring down aircraft.

The Investigation Continues

The investigation into‍ the sinking of the ⁣Bayesian is ongoing, with⁤ Italian authorities ‌working​ to piece together the ⁤events of that fateful day. According to ⁣reports, four victims of the superyacht sinking suffocated in an air pocket, with investigators believing‍ that their cabin filled with carbon dioxide as the yacht sank [[3]].

Conclusion

The sinking of the Bayesian yacht is a tragic ⁣reminder⁤ of the power of nature and the importance of understanding the weather conditions‍ that can affect our lives. As the investigation continues, we can only hope that ‍the truth‌ behind this incident will soon come to light, ‍providing closure for the families of ⁤the victims and ‍valuable⁤ lessons for the⁤ maritime⁤ community.

References:

[1]

[2]

[3]

What weather conditions contributed to the sinking of the Bayesian yacht on August 19, 2024?

The Bayesian Yacht Sinking: Unraveling the Mystery of the Whirlwind

On August 19, 2024, a shocking incident occurred off the coast of Palermo, Italy, when the 50m Perini Navi yacht, Bayesian, sank in what is believed to be a result of a whirlwind or waterspout [[2]]. The yacht, owned by British tech entrepreneur Mike Lynch, was carrying 23 people on board, of which 15 were rescued, while 7 are still missing [[1]]. The incident has raised many questions about the role of weather conditions in the sinking of the yacht, and experts have weighed in to provide clarification.

Understanding Whirlwinds and Downbursts

Paolo Sottocorona, an expert in meteorology, has explained the difference between whirlwinds and downbursts, which are often misunderstood. According to Sottocorona, a thunderstorm forms when air rises quickly and then spreads out, resulting in descending currents that can lead to downbursts [[3]]. These downbursts can be extremely intense, reaching speeds of up to 100 km/h, which can be catastrophic for airplanes and, in this case, yachts.

Whirlwinds, on the other hand, are a different phenomenon, characterized by updrafts followed by downdrafts, which are much stronger than those found in downbursts. While whirlwinds can be devastating, they cannot be predicted with certainty, unlike strong storms [[3]].

The Investigation Continues

As the investigation into the sinking of the Bayesian yacht continues, three crew members have been investigated in connection with the incident

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