BAY Krungsri expects the baht to trade in the range of 34.15-34.70 this week, follow BOJ, US data - stock dimension

2023-04-24 15:05:43

Stock Dimension – Global Markets Group Bank of Ayudhya Public Company Limited There are views on the direction of the baht this week that The baht this week tends to move in a range. 34.15-34.70 baht/dollar compared to last week The baht closed weaker at 34.38 baht/dollar after trading in the range of 34.22-34.50, with the movement still stagnating sideways, with the dollar flat against the euro and the yen last week. Markets are increasingly confident that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates again at its May 2-3 meeting. However, the dollar strengthened against currencies that are highly linked to commodity prices. The latter largely suggests the US economy may enter recession and allow the Fed to raise interest rates one more time before a break. Although Fed officials commented that they will continue to raise interest rates to curb inflation, futures market investors expect a nearly 90% chance that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25bp to 5.00-5.25% on May 3. On the euro side, buoyed by expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will raise interest rates at its May 4 meeting, there is a chance of a 50bp hike in this session. Foreign investors had net sales of Thai stocks and bonds of 3,827 million baht and 23,108 million baht, respectively.

for an overview this week. The Global Markets Group of Krungsri viewed that the market will follow the Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting, which is expected to maintain the policy as usual this time, but investors will pay attention to the communications and signals of policy change. In addition, the first quarter US GDP and employment cost index, as well as personal consumption expenditures for March, will be in the spotlight. the market as well We estimate that concerns about the US economic slowdown Problems in the banking sector, which, although alleviated, hampered confidence Including the issue of the debt ceiling at the end of this quarter will help limit the dollar’s rally. on the contrary Economic momentum outside the US, led by China, is in a comparative recovery cycle.

for domestic factors Markets will pay close attention to March trade and current account data. As for capital flows, it may wait for further political clarity. The Bank of Thailand said in an open letter to the Finance Minister that inflation expectations This reflects confidence that monetary policy will be able to maintain price stability in the medium term.

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