Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has escalated the conflict between two completely different scenarios for the future of the Middle East.
One scenario is being “encouraged” by Iran and its allies (Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, the Iraqi militias and Hamas in Gaza). It is characterized by continued violent conflict and its goal is the destruction of Israel and the triumph of a radical, extremist and revolutionary form of Shia Islam.
The other scenario envisages countering Tehran’s excessive ambitions, aims to degrade the military potential of Iran’s proxies and lay the groundwork for a dynamic, peaceful and modernizing Middle East. This scenario envisages new economic and security arrangements based on the Abraham Accords (signed by Israel with Bahrain, the Emirates and Morocco). Most importantly, it would include Israel-Saudi normalization (quite difficult, but in the long run possible), as well as a certain path to the creation of a Palestinian state.
Past
It is important not to forget that Israel, Iran and their proxies are weighing their next moves. It is important to remember that Europe built its most positive path only after centuries of conflict and on the ruins of two World Wars. With Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine, the story of Europe’s peaceful integration is far from over, but it has progressed far beyond Cold War-era expectations. It took more than forty years of effort to achieve the triumph of the Cold War.
The approach now to Iran should be inspired by this model. To confront, deter and isolate Tehran so that, over time, the Iranian people demand change. It would be premature to declare Nasrallah’s death the turning point towards that future. It would be short-sighted, however, not to see this moment as an opportunity. What makes the stakes even higher is the global context of Iran’s growing common ground with Russia, China and North Korea.
Together they seek to undermine the world order that the US and its partners so painstakingly built after World War II. Iran’s new deliveries of short-range ballistic missiles to Moscow and Russia’s continued supply of armed drones for its war in Ukraine highlight the global stakes involved.
Rays of hope
Amid all the current escalation, several factors provide long-term hope.
- First factor: The significance of Nasrallah’s death. The 64-year-old cleric, for 32 years at the helm of Hezbollah, managed to turn Hezbollah into a prominent force in Iran’s proxy network (the so-called “Axis of Resistance”). After the assassination of Iranian general Qassem Soleimani (head of AL QUDS by the US in 2020), Nasrallah was second in importance on this axis, behind only Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
- Secondlyfactor: There is division in Iran over the intensity of retaliation against Israel. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the multi-service branch of Iran’s armed services, and other hardliners are advocating a more aggressive response in support of Hezbollah. They are the ones who pushed for a ballistic missile attack on Israel. However, Massoud Pezheskian, Iran’s reformist president who took office in July, has pointed out that the escalation is Israel’s “trap” to drag Iran into a war it cannot win. Avoiding direct conflict with Israel is vital for Iran to repair its troubled economy and ease Western sanctions against it. Israel has put Iran in a no-win situation.
FOR A NEW ORDER OF THINGS
How today’s crisis can to turn into… opportunity
Five days ago Israel announced a limited ground invasion of Lebanon to ensure the return to the north of the country of thousands of Israelis who fled Hezbollah rockets.
1 How is the new campaign in Lebanon different from previous ones?
A year after its campaign in Gaza, the Israeli military is focusing on Hezbollah (sending a message to the rest of Iran’s proxies). The methodical approach he has used against Hezbollah, surgically “beheading” its leadership before sending the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) into the battlefield, also demonstrates the best preparation ever.
2 Will Israel be able to maintain the advantage it has had so far in its aviation business?
The Infantry should be prepared for greater resistance than the Air Force encountered.
3 What should the US government do?
The Biden administration has remained openly supportive of Israel’s goals. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has acknowledged the need to dismantle the attack infrastructure along the border to ensure that Hezbollah cannot carry out attacks in Israel’s northern communities. Based on this data, the US should continue to work with Israel to ensure that this project is fully accomplished.
4 What does this ground campaign mean for regional normalization efforts?
Israel’s integration into the region was facilitated by close ties with the US and the desire of other countries in the region to join this… club. If Israel can emerge from its current predicament while keeping its alliance with Washington intact, there is hope that better days are ahead for the wider region.
Intention
It is important that the countries that signed the Abraham Accords with Israel have not given up hope for normalization in the region. No one has severed relations with Israel or disengaged from the agreements. And while many, including the United Arab Emirates, have sought to defuse tensions with Iran, they are doing so with eyes wide open to the continued threat posed by Iran and an unwavering belief that in the long run Israel will become more integrated into the Middle East, not less. as Iran wishes.
It is clear that we are a long way from a new order in the Middle East. This vision, however, should animate responses to the present condition, turning the crisis into a historic opportunity.
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