2023-10-09 19:03:55
Economic activity should record a slight increase of 0.1% in the third quarter once morest a backdrop of slowing inflation, the Banque de France announced on Monday, October 9. Although resilient between July and September, activity should nevertheless mark a clear slowdown following the unexpected rebound of 0.5% in gross domestic product (GDP) observed in the second quarter.
“The economic situation following the summer is less favorable than that which we had just before the summer”declared Olivier Garnier, general director of statistics, studies and international affairs at the Banque de France, by presenting the institution’s new monthly economic survey. More “we are not at all (…) in a recession situation »he added during a press briefing.
In September, the central bank said it expected an increase of 0.1% to 0.2% in GDP in the third quarter. From July to September, activity would have benefited from the end of disruptions in supply chains, the positive effect of the restart of nuclear reactors and the resistance of services such as accommodation or catering, according to the Bank of France.
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Fewer business leaders say they have increased their prices
On the price front, the trend is still towards appeasement thanks to an easing of raw material prices and the slightest supply difficulties. Thus, 7% of manufacturers declared having increased their selling prices in September, compared to 29% a year earlier; 6% even lowered them, according to this survey carried out among around 8,500 business leaders between September 27 and October 4.
In the agri-food sector, a sector for which a government bill wishes to advance commercial negotiations with the hope of accelerating price reductions in stores, there are as many business leaders (7%) to have decreased as increased their price (compared to 2% and 43% respectively a year ago).
In detail, in the month of September alone, activity remained almost stable in the industry. It made progress in the finishing work of the building and services, the latter having notably benefited from a Rugby World Cup effect and mild weather.
For October, activity should rebound slightly in industry, while it should continue to progress in services and building finishing work. Structural work would fall sharply in a context of high rates.
Recruitment difficulties, although declining, remain high (48% in September compared to 50% in August). For the whole of 2023, the Banque de France expects growth of 0.9%, a little less than the government forecast (1%).
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