These banks predict that economic activity is likely to slow once more in the fourth quarter following having already suffered a slowdown in the third quarter. However, economists speak of a recession when the economy contracts for two quarters in a row. This is a relatively uncommon phenomenon, since it would be the third recession in the last twenty years.
The latest figures suggest an accelerated slowdown in the economy. The average forecast of the four banks announces a contraction of 0.4% of the economy in the fourth quarter following a slight decline of 0.1% in the third quarter.
Regarding next year, opinions are divided. ING and Belfius expect the economy to contract further in the first quarter. BNPP Fortis and KBC, on the other hand, predict zero growth. For the whole of 2023, ING forecasts a very slight contraction in activity while the other three banks expect minimal growth.
Wage indexation of 11.5% that approximately one million employees will receive in January will certainly support consumption. But it also risks plunging some companies into embarrassment. Rising costs, recession and rising interest rates will weaken companies, especially those with weak balance sheets.
