The “Kuroda Line” was conscious of in the foreign exchange market because the statement about 7 years ago stopped the depreciation of the yen at around 125 yen per dollar. The remarks of the Bank of Japan’s governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, turned out to be a factor in the depreciation of the yen, breaking through the Kuroda line and pushing it to the 126 yen level for the first time in about 20 years. The depreciation of the yen may lead to a further depreciation of the yen by President Kuroda’s remarks, which repeatedly say that the depreciation of the yen is positive for the Japanese economy.
After 3:00 pm on the 13th, President Kuroda held a trust tournament in Tokyo.GreetingsWas. The dollar-yen exchange rate, which was gradually depreciating against the backdrop of rising US long-term interest rates, suddenly fell from 125.70 yen to the low 126 yen range when the statement that “the current strong monetary easing will continue persistently” was heard in the preliminary report. It rushed to the level of yen depreciation since 2002.
The president’s greetings at the annual convention often trace the decisions of the monetary policy meeting held just before, and the materialized remarks merely repeated the conventional stance. “I don’t remember the greetings at the trust competition being viewed as material in the market,” said Harumi Rokka, senior market economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities.
The Bank of Japan has left interest rates unchanged as central banks in the United States and other countries are tightening in response to rising inflation, and the difference in interest rates between Japan and overseas is widening due to differences in the direction of monetary policy. As the yen depreciates more easily, “the BOJ’s unchanging information dissemination, which is all about monetary easing, has endorsed yen sales,” Rokka said.
In order to prevent the BOJ from breaking the upper limit of 0.25% for long-term interest rates, the yen depreciated on February 10 and March 28 when it announced a limit operation to buy unlimited government bonds. “The foreign exchange market is sensitive to the Bank of Japan’s operations and the remarks of Governor Kuroda,” said Takenobu Nakajima, chief interest rate strategist at Nomura Securities. During this time, Ministry of Finance officials such as Shunichi Suzuki have repeatedly made remarks about the depreciation of the yen, but it is hardly seen as material, suggesting a high level of interest in the Bank of Japan.
The next opportunity to speak is a regular press conference
The next expected opportunity for Governor Kuroda to speak is a regular press conference after the monetary policy decision meeting on the 28th. The depreciation of the yen is progressing even when the depreciation of the yen is said to be positive for the economy at the regular meeting on March 18, and Mizuho Bank’s chief market economist Daisuke Karakama said, “If you repeat the same remarks, the depreciation of the yen can be further accelerated. I have sex. “
Mr. Rokka expects that the BOJ will slightly dilute the easing color at the meeting, as the BOJ’s easing policy has led to speculative yen selling as the yen’s depreciation is tolerated. It is expected that the forward guidance (guidelines) for the policy interest rate will be revised from “the current level of long- and short-term interest rates or a level below it” to “maintain the current level of long- and short-term interest rates for the time being”.
Mr. Rokka and Mr. Karakama believe that President Kuroda will seal the one-sided statement that the depreciation of the yen is positive for the economy, and will focus on a well-balanced evaluation such as “there are both positive and negative aspects.” Considering that the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be held during Golden Week immediately after that and the exchange rate will be liable to fluctuate, if the president does not change the message, it may be a chance to break through the next target of 130 yen. No, “said Karakama.