2023-09-30 23:30:18
The decisions of the Board of Bank Al Maghrib (BAM) have always been particularly awaited. But following the decline in inflation in the third quarter and the day following the Al Haouz earthquake, we can clearly say that that taken on Tuesday 26 was even more so.
It is in this particular context that the Central Bank Council unsurprisingly decided to keep the key rate unchanged at 3%, given the downward trend in inflation and the high level of uncertainty linked to evolution of the international situation.
Analyzing the evolution of the economic situation since its meeting on June 20, it noted a clear deceleration in inflation which fell from a peak of 10.1% year-on-year in February to 5% in August. .
A development “favored by the measures put in place by the government, the mitigation of external pressures and the tightening of monetary policy”, affirmed the public body at the end of its meeting held Tuesday September 26 in Rabat.
Inflation expected at 6% in 2023 and 2.6% in 2024
The decline in inflation should continue, according to projections from Bank Al-Maghrib estimating that it will fall from 6.6% in 2022 to 6% on average during this year then to 2.6% in 2024 and that its underlying component would experience a similar trajectory, going from 6.6% to 5.6% then to 2.3% respectively.
During this session, the third of the current year, the Council further noted that “both medium and long-term inflation expectations saw a significant decline in the third quarter of 2023 and took notes preliminary assessments which show that the transmission of its last three decisions to increase the key rate to monetary conditions and the real economy remains partial.
Growth expected at 2.9% in 2023 and 3.2% in 2024
Regarding growth, following the deceleration to 1.3% in 2022, the Council estimated that it would experience a gradual improvement to 2.9% in 2023 then to 3.2% in 2024.
It is important to emphasize that this estimate does not take into account the consequences of the Al Haouz earthquake and the fallout from the reconstruction and recovery measures announced, however, indicated Bank Al-Maghrib.
In any case, during its next meetings, the Board promised that “its decisions will take into account in particular the data that the Bank will have concerning the impact of the earthquake on the economic and social levels, and on the actions put in place for this purpose by all stakeholders.
Thus, according to his explanations, the expected development “would be the result of an increase of 5% in agricultural added value in 2023 and of 5.9% in 2024 under the assumption of an average cereal production of 70 million quintals”.
Still according to its projections, the rate of growth of non-agricultural activities should slow down to 2.6% in 2023, followed by an acceleration to 3% in 2024, she predicted.
Continuing its projections in terms of external accounts, the Council indicated that trade in goods would mark virtual stagnation in 2023 before a relative recovery in 2024: exports would experience virtual stability this year while imports would remain in 2023 at same level of 2022.
Travel receipts would increase by 23.4% to 115.5 billion dirhams in 2023, before showing a drop of 4.9% to 109.9 billion in 2024, while transfers from MRE should , for their part, increase by 2.5% in 2023 and 3.6% in 2024 to reach 117.5 billion dirhams.
Bank Al-Maghrib thus noting that the current account deficit would be around 2% of GDP in 2023 and in 2024 following 3.5% in 2022, estimating with regard to FDI that “revenues would remain at the equivalent of 3% of GDP in 2023 and 2024”.
Ultimately, the Council predicts that “official reserve assets would stand at 361.8 billion dirhams at the end of 2023 then at 363.8 billion at the end of 2024, i.e. coverage for around 5 and a half months of imports of goods and services”.
Alain Bouithy
1696162079
#Bank #AlMaghrib #decides #key #rate #unchanged
