Baltimore Alert Day: Heavy Rain, Flooding, and Damaging Winds

2024-01-08 13:20:00

BALTIMORE — “ALERT DAY” is in effect Tuesday into Tuesday night for risk of heavy rain, flash and coastal flooding and damaging winds.

Monday

The calm before the storm. Sunshine, crisp, and cool. High 47.

The WJZ First Alert Weather Team has issued an “ALERT DAY” Tuesday for heavy windswept rain and the potential of flooding, river flooding, coastal flooding, and potential strong to damaging winds. Heavy rain will end late Tuesday night, but strong wind gusts will continue into Wednesday.

Our WJZ First Alert Weather Team has been eying this storm for days, and confidence continues to remain high for our “ALERT DAY” Tuesday into Tuesday night. This has the potential to be a high-end ALERT DAY. We’ll continue to monitor trends to see if the storm continues to look as strong as it has been and looks tonight.

Steve Sosna prepares you for Tuesday’s WJZ Alert Day

WHO: The entire viewing area will be impacted by this storm.

WHAT: Powerful area of low pressure that will impact 2/3 of the country in some fashion with extreme weather. This low pressure (storm) system looks exceptionally strong. The potential strength of the system is not one that you get every year if it meets expectations. These types of storms have potential to cause widespread dangerous weather in many forms along their path.

HEAVY RAIN: Potential of 1.5″ to 3″+ rainfall amounts, much of that falling in a 6 hour window in the early evening. This will cause very poor to dangerous driving conditions Tuesday evening into early Tuesday night. The downpours Tuesday evening will be blinding and flash flooding could begin quickly.

FLOODING DOWNPOURS LIKELY TUES. EVENING: Models have shuffled back & forth w/ forecast rainfall. I do expect them to come back up w/ 2 to 3″ across area. Even if 2″ falls, most of it will fall within 2-4 hours, which will cause flash flooding. No flooding Tue AM & early PM @WJZ pic.twitter.com/vTMiosuD05

— Steven Sosna (@SteveSosnaWX) January 8, 2024

WIDESPREAD FLOODING: Since the drought is over, the ground has been saturated. 6 hour flash flood guidance indicates that just 1.5″ of rain in less than 6 hours will cause flash flooding in the urban corridor between DC – Baltimore. This means many urban areas will experience flooding Tuesday evening and night. Road closures and disruptions are likely if these amounts are verified.

RIVER & STREAM FLOODING: We did not experience much stream/river flooding at all in 2023. Different story with this storm. Streams and rivers are at capacity from recent heavy rains events and upstream snow/ice melt to our north will contribute to potential flooding. I’m expecting numerous flood warnings (if rainfall amounts are verified) late Tuesday night through Wednesday. This may cause significant road closures near vulnerable streams and rivers overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning for the commute. Our weather team can update you on which streams/rivers as we get closer: https://www.weather.gov/marfc/

WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING: Coastal flood watches have been issued for MODERATE coastal flooding for all of our counties that border Chesapeake Bay Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning. Widespread flooding at high tide is likely. This will be a higher impact even than our previous coastal flood days over the past month.

STRONG WIND GUSTS, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING GUSTS: Wind will be fierce with this storm. Right now confidence of 50 MPH gusts is high. Models are suggesting gusts as high as 45 to 65 MPH. While those higher end gusts shouldn’t be widespread, there could be a few reports of them. The best chance of 60 to 70 MPH gusts would be eastern shore communities, esp. closer to the beaches. This is where HIGH WIND WATCHES have been issued. An extremely powerful jet stream right over head combined with heavy rain bands will transport some of these strong to damaging winds to the ground. This looks like dinner hour Tuesday into the early overnight hours (subject to change as we approach storm). This would cause potential tree damage, power outages. In & around Baltimore, 50 to 55 MPH gusts seem possible. Out across the higher elevations to our west, a few hours of 60 MPH gusts seem possible Tuesday evening.

Keeping a close eye on the wind threat for Tuesday evening as a strong low-level jet stream passes over the region. Power outages will be possible if this materializes. The last couple of threats underperformed but there is strong model agreement. #mdwx pic.twitter.com/XCxEziNkwF

— Derek Beasley (@DerekBeasleyWX) January 7, 2024

WHEN:

Mid to late Tuesday Morning: Storm begins. Wintry mix in western Maryland. We’ll have to monitor how far east mix comes Tuesday morning to NW zones. Showers break out across the rest of the area.
Tuesday Afternoon: Steady rain, turning windy. Still not impossible travel, but getting tougher.
Tuesday Evening & Night: High impact conditions and worst of storm (impacts below)
Wednesday: Leftover flooding impacts and potential impacts from 40 MPH+ wind gusts.

OTHER IMPACTS: This will cause widespread travel delays, disruptions, cancellations starting Monday and lasting through early Wednesday across the central and eastern United States. Both air travel and road travel will be highly impacted. People should expect numerous flight delays/cancellations if this storm meets its potential.

Quiet weather returns later Wednesday into Thursday.

Yet another significant storm is possible with heavy rain, strong winds, and even a few isolated severe thunderstorms are possible next Friday into Saturday. Stay turned as the WJZ First Alert Weather Team will provide updates on both storms throughout the week.