Ballot 2023: Does the blank vote favor Milei or Massa?

2023-11-02 16:26:00

In the second round of the presidential elections On November 19, 2023, Sergio Massa – current Minister of Economy and candidate for Unión por la Patria – will face the leader of La Libertad Avanza, Javier Milei.

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Both turned out to be the candidates with the most votes in last Sunday’s elections: Massa obtained 36.68% of the votes and Miley el 29.98%.

What is the blank vote in the Argentine electoral system?

In our country the electoral legislation establishes that the valid votes They are classified into two categories:

1. Affirmatives: They are those in which the voter chooses among the available electoral options.

2. Blank votes: It is when an empty envelope or plain colored paper, without inscriptions or images, is placed in the ballot box.

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The act of voting blank is considered valid because it symbolizes the electorate’s decision to abstain from choosing between several options offered by the suffrage system. The intention is to express discontent with the current electoral options and the proposals presented by political parties during the elections.

The “null” vote represents another form of expression. It refers to when a vote is cast using an unofficial ballot or through an official ballot that includes any type of inscription or legend, except in cases of valid votes.

Vote null

Who does the blank vote favor in the runoff between Milei and Massa?

During a second round of elections, casting a blank vote has no influence on the outcome of the vote. Consequently, selecting this option does not indirectly favor any particular candidate. That is to say, neither Sergio Massa nor Javier Milei would be favored by a person who voted blank, or whose vote was annulled.

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For the second round, Only affirmative votes for a party’s candidacy are taken into account. The presidential formula that accumulates the most individual votes will be the winner, regardless of the percentage or number of blank, contested or null votes.

However, many times we hear on the street or in conversations in our close circles that The blank vote can benefit “the candidate with the most votes.” This is true in elections like the PASO or in the first term elections, but This rule does not apply in the next runoff.

Vote null or blank vote

Ballot: How is it defined?

In the second round elections the same criteria are applied as in the general elections. Although the only thing that matters is which of the two formulas obtained the most votes, the National Electoral Code stipulates that the one with the most “affirmative votes validly cast” will be considered elected.

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How many blank votes were there in the general elections?

In the previous elections, there were 554,161 blank voteswhich represents the 2.04% of the total valid votes cast. And in turn, the number of null votes reached 224,864 ballotswhich represents 0.81% of the total ballots issued.

Did the “blank” or “null votes” benefit Sergio Massa during the general elections?

Sunday, October 22, the day the first round was heldthe blank vote was also excluded from the count and only affirmative votes are considereds. By not counting empty envelopes in the presidential category, It could be said that these votes could have favored Sergio Massa, the candidate with the most votes, if he reached the minimum threshold of 40% of the votes (and an advantage of 10 points over Javier Milei). This is the necessary requirement to ensure victory in the first round. But that didn’t happen. At that time, the percentages of blank or null votes did matter, since the proportion of votes is divided by the total number of affirmative votes.

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The assignment of legislative positions such as those of deputies or senators follows a similar pattern, since they are distributed according to the principles of proportionality and the D’Hondt system, which tends to benefit the overrepresentation of electoral lists with the greatest number of votes. This is an effect that deepens when high electoral abstentionism is added to the blank vote.

When is the ballot held?

The National Electoral Chamber has set the second round of the elections for the Sunday, November 19, in accordance with the deadlines established in article 96 of the Constitution. This legislation requires elections to be held within 30 days of the initial presidential vote.

SV / Gi

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