Nuclear at its lowest since 1988, hydroelectricity at its lowest since 1976, consumption down by only 1.7%, a net import balance in electricity, development of renewable energies not fast enough… The year 2022 pays the price chronic, according to the latest report from RTE.
The news of the French electricity system was busy in 2022 and the new assessment made by RTE in mid-February confirms the exceptional nature of what happened, and nothing says that 2023 will be very different.
The context is well known: the geopolitical crisis following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led to tension in the supply of fossil fuels, which had an impact on the prices of petroleum products and gas, and then on electricity prices in Europe. Faced with general inflation, individuals and companies have had to reduce their consumption, in line with the sobriety plan launched by the Government. As the Chairman of the Management Board of RTE, Xavier Piechaczyk, puts it: “Energy has returned to the heart of French concerns”.
The electricity transmission network operator notes that this drop in consumption is 1.7% between 2021 and 2022, since it has gone from 467 to 459 TWh (climate-corrected data). The decline is equivalent to that seen in 2009 following the start of the financial crisis. Looking back, 2022 consumption is 4.2% lower than the 2014-2019 average. Will the trend be long term? There is nothing to confirm this for the moment, even if it is reassuring to see that manufacturers – more quickly subject to price constraints – then the residential and tertiary sectors have been or have forced themselves into efforts during the last quarter of 2022: compared to the 2014-2019 average, the drop in consumption was around 9% at that time (see graph).
Nuclear power at its lowest since 1988
Electricity production also had an exceptional year. The nuclear king was naked in 2022, with its lowest production since 1988! By reaching 279 TWh, the nuclear fleet lost 82 TWh compared to 2021. It is even 30% below its average production over the past 20 years. The fleet availability rate was only 54% compared to an average of 73% over 2015-2019. Long gone are the days when the former CEO of EDF, Henri Proglio, aimed for a sustainable availability rate above 80%… The causes of these declines (shutdowns and planning of maintenance operations, checks following stress corrosion of certain pipes) seem to be gradually diminishing, but EDF has probably not yet finished solving all the problems.
The other sector which suffered in 2022 is that of hydroelectricity. With a hot and dry year, its production barely came close to 50 TWh, its lowest level since 1976, when it had exceeded 61 TW in 2021. Hydroelectric plant operators have nevertheless managed to manage water reserves, with the help of favorable weather conditions last fall, in order to be able to maximize production during the winter.
Faced with these deficits, electricity production from gas-fired power plants increased by more than 11 TWh compared to 2021, to reach 44.1 TWh. Paradoxically, it was in the heart of summer, when gas prices were the highest, that these power stations operated most actively. But it was necessary to find a quick solution to the historical minimum that the nuclear fleet then knew, with only 21.7 GW available on August 28 (65% of the fleet was shut down).
Need to accelerate renewables
As for other renewable energies, there is an increase in wind power (37.5 TWh or +0.7 TWh compared to 2021) and photovoltaic solar (18.6 TWh or +4.4 TWh) in 2022. The first benefited from a 1.9 GW increase in its installed capacity (including the first offshore wind farm off Saint-Nazaire), but suffered from a disadvantageous wind level, while the second benefited from 2, 6 GW newly installed and favorable sunshine. The current momentum is not enough, however. To achieve the 2023 objectives of the multiannual energy program, France should install 3.5 GW of onshore wind power and 4.4 GW of solar photovoltaic by the end of the year. Levels that would almost have to be renewed each year to aim for the 2028 objectives.
Overall, electricity production in France was 445 TWh in 2022, i.e. 15% less than in 2021. France therefore had to import more (57 TWh), and since it exported less (40.5 TWh ), it is a net importer for the first time since 1980. The balance is -16.5 TWh when it was +43.3 TWh in 2021. Electricity therefore weighed in the deterioration of the French trade balance, even if it only accounts for 7% of the 115 billion euros of the French energy bill in 2022, the rest being due to imports of fossil fuels. Electricity imports were particularly strong in the summer. The balance remained export to Italy (+17.9 TWh) and Switzerland (+12.1 TWh), but is negative with Germany/Belgium (-27.4 tWh), Great Britain (- 9.9 TWh) and Spain (-9.1 TWh).
To finish its overview of 2022, RTE reported that CO emissions2 due to electricity production in France increased to 25 MtCO2. Certainly more than in 2021 (21.5 MtCO2), but still less than in 2016 and 2017 when coal-fired power plants were still very active. However, if we take into account the net balance of trade flows with other countries, this figure rises to more than 37 MtCO2 (see graph).
2022 will have been staggering in many ways. Let’s wait and see what 2023 has in store for us.