Sentence / Tachibana generation
The world has entered a cycle of interest rate hikes. The Taiwan stock index has been sliding all the way following breaking through 18,000 points this year. The stock market has been rushing up and down. In a dilemma, how can we improve the winning rate? Senior analyst Ding Yanjun believes that investing in the stock market this year should eliminate the weak and retain the strong.Prosperity cyclical stocks should stop losses in a timely manner, including steel, cement, shipping stocks, etc., and optimistic regarding financial stocks can increase the weight on dips.
Business cycle stocks should stop losses and avoid staying in long-term suites
This year, the stock market is very difficult to operate, and it has been fluctuating between 15,000 and 16,000 points recently. Ding Yanjun said that as the world enters the stage of raising interest rates, many industries will be affected, and “business cyclical stocks” are one of them, and investment should be conservative.
Business cycle stocks are industries that are closely related to market economic conditions, such as steel, cement, textile, paper, shipping, plasticization, coal, oil, natural gas, automobiles, construction and so on. When supply and demand are out of balance, the supply of goods produced by enterprises exceeds demand, and commodity prices will naturally fall; on the contrary, when demand exceeds supply, commodity prices will rise, and the stock price will also rise.
Before the global epidemic broke out, the shortage of cabinets and the serious situation of port congestion, coupled with the rising international raw material prices, caused manufacturers to actively stock up, and their performance was good, driving the stock prices of various manufacturers to continue to rise. This year, with prices rising but the economy slowing down, the market expects that the demand will not be as good as before. In addition, manufacturers will clear their inventories before purchasing, and the quotations of various products have begun to decline.
He believes that the future profits of some stocks may decline. If the rebound is high, it is recommended to stop losses and not increase the weight, including steel, cement, panel, shipping, memory and other industries. Ding Yanjun said that electronics stocks are deeply affected by the economic boom, and electronic products will also become consumer goods with the bad boom. It is recommended that investments can be allocated to livelihood stocks that are less affected by the boom cycle. He believes that domestic demand stocks are less affected. The impact of the epidemic is safer.
Prospects are bright TSMC, financial stocks are overweight
However, Ding Yanjun believes that as the market retreats, some stocks are oversold, and there is investment value at present. For example, TSMC and financial stocks, which are still optimistic regarding future profit growth, can take advantage of the situation to increase their positions on dips and make regular quota arrangements.
Financial stocks, because the direction and magnitude of interest rate hikes are quite clear, especially in Taiwan, where interest rate hikes and spreads widen, as long as the loan scale is large, they will make more money. Due to the many variables in life insurance, bank stocks are better than life insurance stocks, and the sustainability of deposit bank stocks is relatively high. Ding Yanjun suggested that investors can choose financial stocks with a cash yield of regarding 5% or more as attractive targets.
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