Avian flu: is it time to start being afraid?

Briefly regarding what we know regarding the H5N1 virus.

The world is currently experiencing the largest bird flu epidemic ever recorded. Since October 2021, hundreds of millions of domestic and wild birds have died from this infection worldwide.

But the growing concern of experts in recent months has not been caused by the death of birds, but by the fact that the virus seems to have learned to change the host and infect mammals.

So, an outbreak of bird flu was registered in Spain, on a mink breeding farm.

In addition, cases of avian influenza have been identified among marine mammals off the coasts of Peru and New England, as well as among wildlife in North America: foxes, skunks, otters, lynxes, bears and raccoons.

But that’s not all – at the end of February, an 11-year-old girl died from bird flu in Cambodia.

Does this mean the beginning of a new pandemic?

What is bird flu?

There are many subtypes of the influenza virus circulating in wild birds. Most of these subtypes are low pathogenic, meaning they usually cause very little or no symptoms of infection. However, some varieties are highly pathogenic, as in the case of the virus that caused the current global outbreak of avian influenza.

This is the H5N1 virus, clade (variant) 2.3.4.4b. It is this strain that is now causing concern to virologists. The outbreak began in 2020-2021 and quickly spread to Europe and Asia. In December 2021, H5N1 reached North America, causing the death of poultry and wild birds. A year later, in December 2022, the virus reached South America, where not only birds, but also seals became its victims. So far, only Australia and Antarctica remain free from H5N1.

How can this affect people?

Influenza in humans, pigs, dogs, horses is caused by different subtypes and strains of the virus. However, viruses have the ability to “jump” from one species to another. This effect is called “spillover” (literally – overflow). For example, strains of human influenza have been found in Australian pigs, and some variants of the canine virus originally infected horses.

Scientists are concerned regarding the large number of cases of spillover associated with the H5N1 2.3.4.4b variant – the fact that he “learned” to infect minks, as well as seals, foxes, raccoons and other mammals in a short time.

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What happened in Cambodia?

On February 22, an 11-year-old girl died in southern Cambodia from severe pneumonia caused by H5N1 avian influenza. The virus was also isolated from her father, but he showed no symptoms of infection. In both cases, the infection most likely came from infected birds found in the family’s household. Experts concluded that the likelihood of transmission of the virus from person to person is unlikely.

In addition, genetic sequencing of the virus isolated from father and daughter showed that it belongs to the 2.3.2.1c variant common in Cambodia, and not to the 2.3.4.4b variant currently circulating around the world.

This is far from the first time that H5N1 has “jumped” onto people. Such cases have already been noted earlier in Ecuador, China, USA, Spain, Great Britain, Vietnam, Russia. Fortunately, each time they were associated with the fact that people were in contact with infected birds, and not infected from each other.

However, if the virus has the ability to choose a new host, the likelihood of individual outbreaks or even a pandemic increases.

The fact that 2.3.4.4b appears to have mutated and now easily infects mammals, including humans, is disturbing.

Experts are now closely monitoring how H5N1 spreads in animals, and tracking human infections, which, fortunately, are still very few. Since the ability of the virus to be transmitted from person to person has not been proven, the World Health Organization considers the risk of an avian influenza pandemic to be low, but advises people to minimize contact with birds.

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