Authorities and analysts are beginning to take stock of the emergency declared in the electricity sector following the drought that caused the reduction of the reservoirs of the country’s main hydroelectric plants, making it necessary to use other sources of generation.
The emergency situation of the National Interconnected System ended on June 30, while the water levels in the Chixoy hydroelectric plant were recovering, which has already occurred, but according to Juan Fernando Castro Martínez, Vice Minister of Energy and Mines, in charge of the energy area, due to the effect of climate change -drought- the demand for energy has increased and the load curve “completely changed its form.”
The load factor in the system is at 79%, which had not been observed, and the maximum demand reached up to 2,120 megawatts; and there was a plant outside the system, but fortunately the weather changed when winter came and since there was water, it is being generated with hydroelectric plants, he explained.
“Chixoy is half a meter away from being full (the reservoir) and all the other plants are operating, so the water supply is predominantly renewable,” said the official, following attending a meeting in the Congress of the Republic.
New tenders
Asked regarding a new open energy tender known as PEG-5, Castro Martínez replied that “there is interest in speeding up the incorporation of renewable generation, but fast-maturing systems are required and in that sense, I am talking regarding solar and wind plants; between the two, wind power is discriminated once morest and solar power is preferred.”
He cited as an example that Chile is a surprising country in terms of solar energy production and has surpluses, but it has “oscillations” in the frequency of its network, so at this time it is seeking to strengthen its international connections to take advantage of the inertia of neighboring systems.
“If you look at the load curve in a solar system, it is an increase or decrease and that introduces interference into the system, so you have to evaluate to what extent our system allows for the installation of a certain percentage of solar panels, as it is isolated from Mexico and the southern system,” he commented.
The technician reiterated that they are now working on the Transmission Expansion Plan and the Generation Expansion Plan will be released immediately, but there is a certain tendency towards generation with natural gas, and when considering an energy transition in the region based on decarbonization, we would have to “fall back to natural gas, which pollutes, but much less than other systems such as bunker or diesel,” he stressed.
“Due to the effects of climate change – drought – the demand for energy has increased and the load curve has “completely changed shape.”
Juan Fernando Castro Martínez, Deputy Minister of Energy and Mines
He clarified that at this time there is no risk to the national system, the alerts have already passed and last May, Mexico supplied Guatemala on five occasions, with deliveries of up to 250 megawatts, when a coal plant failed “and we were fortunate to be connected to maximum demand.”
More investments
Consultant and specialist Luis García Pinot explained that the current situation is divided into two: transmission and distribution, but greater investment is required in distribution to better develop the approach to people and productive sectors.
This year, a demand record was broken, and the technician exemplified that in Petén alone, it grew 13%, which has been sustained since the effects of the pandemic in 2020, so it is a territory that is heading towards an increase in consumption and economic agents are concerned, because more investments are needed to satisfy it.
“We do not want to reach a point where the distributor is unable to connect more users, so more investments have to be made each year to meet this demand,” he concluded.
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