[Epoch Times, February 5, 2022](Epoch Times reporter Lin Yan comprehensive report) Ian Bremmer, founder of the US political risk consulting firm Eurasia Group, said,Beijing Winter OlympicsbringXi Jinpingof”opportunity cost“Very high, and if you screw it up, Xi Jinping’s credibility at home and abroad will take a huge hit.
Beijing Winter OlympicsThe opening ceremony will be held on Friday (February 4). “Can (the Winter Olympics) bring benefits to China? I’m skeptical,” Bremer wrote in his GZERO media on Friday.
He analyzed that Beijing is facing numerous domestic challenges, from finding new growth engines to expand the country’s economic gains and reduce income inequality, to becoming technologically self-sufficient and reversing population decline,Xi JinpingShould focus on the above matters, less interested in celebration activities.especially in the partyTwentyBefore the convocation, Xi Jinping was seeking a historic third term as the top leader.
Bremer believes that the 2022 Beijing Olympics will be very important to Xi Jinping.opportunity cost– whether in terms of resources, focus or political capital – very high.
“Opportunity cost” refers to the use of human and material resources on one thing, and other opportunities will be given up, then the benefits that other opportunities can bring are the opportunity cost of giving up it and choosing to do something.
Amid a raging global pandemic, supply chain challenges, and international outcry over China’s human rights practices, Beijing, the host of the 2022 Winter Olympics, has not dared to brazenly promote the achievements of CCP leaders as it has in the past, and in many ways, It is also difficult for Beijing to gain the benefits and fame it had hoped for from the Winter Olympics.
Bremer has long tracked Chinese politics. He said that the cost of the Beijing Winter Olympics is very staggering, and these hugely invested sports facilities will be idle when they are used up, but taxpayers have to pay. Due to the restrictions imposed by the epidemic, there is no tourism income without foreign tourists.
More importantly, the 2022 Winter Olympics are unlikely to produce a soft power dividend similar to that of 2008. The CCP’s policies on Hong Kong, South China Sea, Xinjiang, and Tibet have lost the support of foreigners.
The huge risk posed by the epidemic
China has been enforcing a draconian COVID-19 clearance policy, and authorities scrapped plans to allow local spectators to watch the Olympics after a small outbreak in Beijing. But with athletes from nearly 100 countries coming to participate in the competition, the possibility of an out-of-control outbreak cannot be ruled out.
To mitigate this risk, Beijing has established a closed-loop system (called “bubble”) management that separates athletes, journalists, workers and other Olympic-related personnel from local residents and limits the probability of infection that occurs inside the bubble.
However, more than 230 positive cases have been reported so far. If the virus kills a large number of contestants, shuts down sporting events, or worse, if the bubble bursts and the virus spreads to the local population, Mr. Xi’s credibility at home and abroad would take a huge hit, Bremer said.
Winter Olympics hosting fees will be particularly staggering
Beijing’s own budget for the Winter Olympics is set at $3.9 billion, well below the $13 billion for the 2018 Pyeongchang Olympics in South Korea and the $51 billion for the 2014 Sochi Olympics in Russia.
However, Olympic organizers always end up paying far more than their budget plans. Since 1960, the organizing committee has maintained a record of cost overruns, with the Olympics spending an average of 172 percent over budget. The 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing reportedly cost about $42 billion, more than six times the original budget.
The bill for the 2022 Winter Olympics will be particularly staggering, as Beijing has no mountains and little snow due to the dry climate. The ski race, which takes place more than 50 miles north of Beijing, requires the construction of a high-speed rail link, which is not included in the official budget.
Because there is no snow, it has to be built continuously, which not only costs a lot of money, but also consumes a lot of water. Also, winter sports are not very popular in China, and many sports facilities built in Beijing will have limited use after the Olympics. Soon, they will become “white elephants”, idle and in need of maintenance, leaving taxpayers with debt and maintenance responsibility.
Questionable economic benefits
Olympic host cities like to promise residents that hosting the Games will eventually generate enough benefits to offset the costs. But multiple studies in the past have shown that hosting the Olympics is almost all about losing money.
Direct revenues from sponsorships, licensing and television rights cover only a fraction of the costs, and the long-term economic benefits of hosting the Games are negligible by comparison.
This is particularly the case for Beijing, Bremer believes. First, taxpayer-funded venue construction has not increased employment or output, as China is already in the midst of a boom in investment and infrastructure development. Much of the Olympic spending will not make the economic pie bigger, but will instead shift resources from the productive sector of the economy to construction.
Second, the blanket ban on foreign visitors by COVID restrictions means China won’t see a short-term boost in tourism spending or local consumption. Finally, unlike those emerging cities, Beijing is already a highly connected, developed metropolis, which also limits the potential for increased trade, foreign investment and tourism after the Olympics.
unlikely to yield soft power dividends
Countries have historically sought to use the Olympics to gain international prestige and show strength. It has been a particularly important driver for hosting the Olympics for emerging economies eager to flex their rising prowess.
This strategy worked for China in 2008, but this time it will fail. Beijing’s tighter control over Hong Kong, its militarization in the South China Sea, and its human rights abuses in Xinjiang and Tibet make it harder than it was in 2008 to win over foreign hearts.
The CCP’s policy of persecution and genocide against the Uyghurs has prompted diplomatic boycotts of the Winter Olympics by ten countries, including the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and India.
In much of the world, negative views of China are nearing an all-time high. Bremer said that historically, no matter how carefully orchestrated, even the 1980 US boycott of the Moscow Olympics — dubbed the most politicized Olympics — has proven that it is impossible to change the perceptions of foreigners, Beijing The same goes for the Olympics.
Heads of state meeting at a discount
In addition to sports competitions, the Olympic Games have always been an informal meeting place for world leaders. Xi Jinping has not left China or visited foreign countries in the past two years. The most recent visit by the head of state was also in March 2020 by the President of Pakistan. The Beijing Winter Olympics will be his first face-to-face meeting with a foreign head of state in two years.
Affected by the pandemic, both the 2021 Tokyo Summer Olympics and the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics have seen a significant drop in attendance by world leaders.
Only 30 heads of state, heads of government, members of the royal family and heads of international organizations attended the opening ceremony of the Beijing Winter Olympics this time. About half of the dignitaries in the VIP list are from authoritarian countries, and some are from semi-authoritarian countries (classified as mixed regimes according to the 2020 Democracy Index).
Bao Shen, senior editor of VOA’s Chinese department who participated in the coverage of the 2008 Beijing Olympics, said: “If we look at the list, we can see that in addition to Putin, the president of Belarus and the prime minister of Kazakhstan, there are important people in world politics. How many are there?
“The current Beijing Winter Olympics in China (the CCP) can be said to be like a short-lived banquet. After the banquet, after the closing of the Winter Olympics… Where is the CCP’s future economic growth trend and potential? It can be solved by taking the third world route. Is it possible for China to continue to derail with the international community? This is an urgent question for the Chinese authorities and the Chinese government.”
Responsible editor: Ye Ziwei#