AUD/USD appears to be in line to test the annual low (0.6829) following failing to push the 50-week SMA line (0.7243), but the exchange rate might consolidate in the short term as long as the low of the AUD/USD is maintained. June ( 0.6850)
weekly chart AUD/USD/Pending Short: AUD/USD
Source: TradingView.
As a result, AUD/USD may face range-bound conditions as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) seeks to normalize its monetary policy in the coming months. The exchange rate may seek to reverse its decline from its June high (0.7283) as Governor Philip Lowe and Co. “is committed to doing what is necessary to ensure Australia inflation returns to its targets in time. passed.”
However, AUD/USD may eventually follow a negative slope in the 50-week SMA (0.7243) as the Federal Reserve ensures strict policy. Exchange rates may continue to yield futures from 2020 as Chair Jerome Powell & Co. predicts an upward trajectory for the Fed Funds rate.
AUD/USD may consolidate in the near term as it defends its June low (0.6850), but the exchange rate may trade at its annual low in the second half of 2022, with the FOMC working to provide a rate hike. 75bp continually next month
AUD/JPY Weekly Chart/ Pending Long: AUD/JPY
Source: TradingView.
AUD/JPY has improved following trading at a yearly high (96.88) in June. And the exchange rate may continue to strengthen in the second half of 2022 as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) adheres to a quantitative and qualitative easing program with a regulated yield curve.
As a result, AUD/JPY may attempt to test its May 2015 high (97.30) as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) normalizes monetary policy. A move above 70 on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is likely to be accompanied by an increase in the exchange rate, just like the price action earlier this year.
However, AUD/JPY may face a larger correction if the RSI diverges with the price and fails to push into the overbought zone. Failure to hedge June lows (91.97) may push the exchange rate to May lows (87.30) as bullish momentum weakens.
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