“Attack on October 7th or…”. Two hypotheses – Time

Determination against the “only enemy”, Israel, with “legitimate and legal” responses, but also an appeal for the unity of all Muslims. This is the line that the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, traced during the Friday prayers and commemoration ceremony for Hassan Nasrallah, the Hezbollah leader killed during the raids in Lebanon. Tel Aviv’s response to Tehran’s attack is expected “early next week”. This is what the Israeli press reported, citing IDF sources according to whom the reaction will be “serious and significant”. What should we expect? What will be the developments of the conflict that is causing tensions to explode in the Middle East? Lilli Gruber asked Lucio Caracciolo. According to the director of Limes, there are two possibilities.

The point, the analyst recalled to begin, “is to understand what type of reaction the Israelis will have and to understand whether it will be an opportunity for the Iranians to restart the game or whether some balance will be achieved in terms of missile attacks”. In a “normal” world, the geopolitical expert continued, “Israel would attack the 7th and hit infrastructure and oil facilities.” In the “less normal” world we live in, however, “it could affect atomic plants, which would have consequences that are better not to dwell on”. Then there is another “aspect to follow”. “The offensive in Lebanon is not going well. There are several losses: the Israelis are unable to penetrate much. It’s one thing to shoot from above and one thing to go on the ground. It will take weeks and the rockets will arrive anyway. The the only answer I feel like giving is that Israel wants a piece of Lebanon”, concluded Caracciolo.