Over the two years of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, more than 71,000 Russian men have died in the war, according to the latest data from Rosstat on the number of deaths.
“Important Stories” estimated the losses based on the excess mortality method. In 2023, according to this method, excess mortality of men (20-49 years) amounted to 42 thousand people. This age category is singled out, firstly, due to the peculiarity of the publication of data by Rosstat (they are divided into categories “15-19 years”, “20-24”, etc.).
Secondly, because in older ages, in general, there are many more deaths from all causes, and it is almost impossible to single out those who might have died specifically in the war, and not, for example, from COVID.
Thirdly, men under 20 and over 50 make up no more than 6% of all military losses, according to data from a team of volunteers, the publications Mediazona and the BBC Russian Service, which have been collecting information regarding the dead since the beginning of the war based on obituaries on social networks, the media and photographs from cemeteries.
If we add to the 42,000 deaths among 20-49 year olds, calculated based on excess mortality, another 6% of deaths at other ages, the total loss estimate in 2023 will be 45,000.
Demographers who spoke to Important Stories (on condition of anonymity) suggested that this estimate is only the minimum possible number of war deaths. This is due to the fact that death can be recorded both in the region of residence of a person and in the place where he died – for example, in the occupied territories of Ukraine. First of all, this concerns prisoners, as well as migrants who received Russian passports – 10 thousand of them, as stated by the head of the Investigative Committee Alexander Bastrykin, have already been sent to war. At the same time, Rosstat does not publish data on mortality in the occupied regions. Missing persons are also not included in the official statistics of Rosstat.
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2024-07-06 14:58:07