2024-02-20 23:01:52
350 million euros, as much as the stretched version of an Airbus A350. This is the price of the new ASML machine, the first to integrate a new lithography technique which should make it possible to more efficiently engrave the most advanced chips, including those intended for training the latest models of generative artificial intelligence. A 150-ton behemoth, shipped in 13 containers. Then assembled by 250 engineers for at least six months. The first model was delivered at the beginning of January, to an American Intel factory, but its entry into service is not planned before 2025. The Dutch group, the undisputed leader in the sector, is very confident. He assures that all the major world producers have already placed orders. And aims for 20 machines delivered per year by 2028.
Extreme ultraviolet – Founded in 1984 in Veldhoven, a suburb of Eindhoven, ASML today controls more than 60% of the market, clearly ahead of its Japanese rivals Nikon and Canon. Above all, the company has a monopoly position for the most advanced chips, which can be explained by a bold bet made around twenty years ago. At the time, she relied on a new technique, extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV). The process is complex. And the disappointments are multiple. The first machines only came into service in 2018. Since then, TSMC, Intel and even Samsung have adopted them. In five years, ASML’s turnover has more than doubled, reaching 27.6 billion euros in 2023. On the stock market, it is now the third largest capitalization in Europe.
Engraving in 1 nm – In recent years, the group has taken advantage of the crisis in the semiconductor market, which pushed foundries to launch, with the support of States, vast plans to expand their production capacities. He now hopes to ride the boom in generative AI, which requires significant computing power. Its new machine is intended for the finest engravings, from 3 nm. And potentially down to just 1nm. According to ASML, it makes it possible to divide the size of transistors by almost two, making it possible to increase their density and increase the performance of the chips. Certainly, these fine engravings are possible with current machines, but only through a complex production process which increases costs and the risk of default, assures ASML.
Not before 2030? – Between ten and twenty machines have already been ordered, explains the group, which predicts a jump in sales from 2026, in particular with the launch of a second version. Analysts are more reserved. ASML’s new EUV lithography technique will “present many new technological challenges that must be solved and industrialized, underlines Jeff Koch, analyst at SemiAnalysis. But the most difficult challenge is economic.” According to his estimates, the machine will indeed have higher production costs than current machines. Not to mention a purchase price twice as high. It will only become more profitable for engraving 1nm chips, probably by 2030 or 2031. It is also at this deadline that TSMC should begin to deploy it.
For further:
– Europe will invest 43 billion euros in chips
– Why Samsung still can’t compete with TSMC
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