Asian American support for Donald Trump saw a five-point increase in this election cycle compared to 2020, signaling a subtle yet notable shift toward the GOP among these voters.
According to the NBC News Exit Poll, which surveyed early and Election Day participants, 54% of Asian American voters cast their ballots for Kamala Harris, while 39% opted for Trump. This marked a decline for Harris, who lost seven percentage points when compared to the Asian American Pacific Islander (AAPI) support for Joe Biden in the previous election.
Karthick Ramakrishnan, the founder of AAPI Data, elaborated on the findings, asserting that the polling underscores a continuing trend that began to materialize during the 2016 presidential election cycle, coinciding with Trump’s rising political prominence.
“2012 represented the high-water mark in Asian American support for a Democratic presidential candidate, and it has been going down ever since,” he explained. “The pendulum has started to swing back.”
“If you’re unemployed or employed, if you’re retired or working, everyone feels the pain of inflation,” Ramakrishnan emphasized. “That was a significant headwind for the Democratic Party, including Harris.”
In the NBC News Exit Poll, approximately 514 Asian American voters were surveyed across all 50 states, which included around 600 polling locations nationwide. Surveys were conducted in English and Spanish, but Ramakrishnan pointed out that the absence of Asian languages in the survey poses significant limitations regarding the data’s comprehensiveness. He also noted that the sample wasn’t specifically designed to be representative of Asian American voters but rather aimed at predicting elections on both national and state levels. Asian Americans typically reside in blue states and districts, yet the survey tends to draw from more competitive areas, he added.
Trip Yang, a Democratic political strategist, also noted that the perception of the GOP as being stronger on economic issues seemed to outweigh the Democrats’ attempts to connect with voters on these topics. For the Asian American community, which owns over 3 million small businesses, this perception proved particularly influential.
“One of the first policy proposals that Harris announced in July, when she became the presumptive Democratic nominee, was a $6,000 newborn tax credit,” he remarked. “It was clear that the Democratic side wanted to address economic concerns, but Trump consistently led in every single poll regarding this issue.”
From 1992 to 2012, the Democratic Party witnessed significant gains among Asian American voters, driven partly by Bill Clinton’s economic policies, according to Ramakrishnan. This trend was further accelerated following the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, during which the GOP was perceived as “unfriendly or hostile” toward immigrants and communities of color. Nearly three-quarters of Asian Americans voted for Barack Obama in 2012. However, Trump’s initial presidential campaign marked a pivotal moment due to his relentless focus on economic messaging.
“He succeeded in creating an impression that the economy was doing horribly,” Ramakrishnan stated. “It seems to have made a difference in the last decade.”
Additionally, for many newer immigrants, issues like identity and civil rights—which are typically championed by Democrats—may not hold the same significance, as they often do not fully understand or connect with the fight for minority rights in the United States, according to Ramakrishnan. He noted that naturalized citizens constitute a substantial portion of the Asian American voting bloc.
“There’s a significant difference about cultural attitudes towards civil rights,” Yang explained. “If you were an Asian American who was born here and speaks English as a first language, you’re much more receptive to terms like ‘criminal justice reform’, ‘cross-cultural solidarity’ and ‘Black lives matter.’”
Yang characterized the rightward shift as still being “incremental,” emphasizing that the Asian American community does not vote as a single, monolithic block.
“Within Asian American groups, there are different patterns and behaviors,” Yang noted. “We don’t see that type of massive swing in AAPI voters nationally … different Asian Americans are moving in different directions.”
Ramakrishnan highlighted that the relatively modest size of the shift could be attributed to the varying levels of education among voters, which played a crucial role in determining vote preference. He pointed out that Harris performed better among college-educated voters, regardless of race, and revealed that more than half of Asian Americans aged 25 and older possess at least a bachelor’s degree, compared to roughly one-third of the general population in the same age category.
Some other demographic groups experienced noteworthy shifts this election cycle. For instance, Latino voters gravitated toward Trump by a remarkable 25 percentage points. Among white college-educated women, Harris achieved significant gains, earning a 20-point advantage over Trump—an improvement from Biden’s 9-point lead in the previous election cycle. Additionally, Trump made notable inroads among nonwhite voters overall, securing a 7-point gain.
**Interview with Karthick Ramakrishnan, Founder of AAPI Data**
**Editor:** Thank you for joining us today, Karthick. Recent polling has shown a notable increase in support for Donald Trump among Asian American voters compared to the 2020 election. Can you explain what this shift might indicate?
**Ramakrishnan:** Thank you for having me. Yes, we saw a five-point increase in Asian American support for Trump this cycle. This suggests a subtle but significant trend toward the GOP, which is noteworthy given the historical context of the Asian American voting bloc, which leaned heavily Democratic in previous elections.
**Editor:** You mentioned that 54% of Asian American voters supported Kamala Harris while 39% opted for Trump. This represents a decline for Harris. What factors do you believe contributed to this?
**Ramakrishnan:** Absolutely, Harris’s support decreased by seven percentage points compared to Biden’s numbers in 2020. Economic concerns, especially inflation, played a huge role. Many voters, regardless of their background—whether unemployed or retired—are feeling the pressure of rising costs, which has created a headwind for the Democratic Party.
**Editor:** You have also pointed out that the polling data has limitations, such as the absence of Asian languages. How might this impact the findings?
**Ramakrishnan:** Yes, the lack of representation in language can significantly limit the data’s comprehensiveness. This survey wasn’t specifically designed to reflect the Asian American population accurately, as it focused on competitive areas rather than predominantly blue districts where many Asian Americans reside.
**Editor:** Trip Yang mentioned that the perception of the GOP as stronger on economic issues influenced Asian American voters. Can you elaborate on this?
**Ramakrishnan:** Certainly. The Asian American community has a robust presence in entrepreneurship, with over 3 million small businesses. This community’s economic priorities are paramount, and if they perceive the GOP as addressing these concerns more effectively—even if they disagree on other issues—it can sway their support.
**Editor:** Historically, the Democratic Party had significant traction among Asian American voters. What do you think has changed over the past decade?
**Ramakrishnan:** From 1992 to 2012, the Democratic Party’s connection with this community was strong, largely due to policies under leaders like Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. However, the GOP’s messaging, particularly under Trump, concentrating on economic discontent, shifted perceptions. Many newer immigrants may not prioritize the same civil rights issues that have traditionally been Democratic touchpoints.
**Editor:** So, moving forward, how might the Democratic Party reconnect with Asian American voters?
**Ramakrishnan:** The Democrats need to actively address economic issues and connect with the specific needs of Asian American communities across the board. Building a narrative around shared economic progress and understanding the values of newer immigrants will be crucial in regaining their support.
**Editor:** Thank you, Karthick, for your insights on this evolving political landscape among Asian American voters.
**Ramakrishnan:** Thank you for having me!
