As the holidays approach, Covid-19 cases and hospitalizations are on the rise again. Combined with the flu and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), many hospitals are currently overwhelmed, and experts say patients “won’t receive the same level of care” if they need medical help.
Is another winter wave of Covid-19 on the way?
According Atlantic, another winter surge of Covid-19 is likely underway, with cases and hospitalizations increasing significantly in recent weeks. Over the past two weeks, new cases of Covid-19 have increased by 53% while hospitalizations have increased by 31%.
Although cases are rising across the country, the South and West have seen particularly large increases. In Mississippi, Georgia, Texas, South Carolina and Alabama, the daily average of reported cases has doubled in the past two weeks. And while hospitalizations grew more slowly, daily hospitalizations rose 57% in California, reaching higher levels than any other state.
With colder weather, along with holiday travel and gatherings, the current rise in cases is expected, experts say. However, it is still unclear whether the increase will lead to another winter surge or just an intermittent increase in some areas, and health experts have expressed mixed opinions on this.
“I think it will continue,” said Gregory Poland, professor of medicine at Mayo Clinic. “We will be pouring more gas on the fire with the Christmas trips.”
On the other hand, Susan Kline, an expert in infectious diseases at the University of Minnesota School of Medicinesaid she hadn’t “seen a big enough change to call it a wave.”
Similarly, Anne Rimoin, epidemiologist at the University of California, Los Angelessaid: “It’s hard to know, but the number of cases is moving in the wrong direction.”
Although most health experts agree that a surge this winter would likely be less severe than surges in previous years, a lack of immune data also means it’s harder to predict how the current surge in cases will play out. will take place.
“We don’t know anything about when people were [vaccinated]and we don’t know anything about hybrid immunity, so it’s impossible to predict “how much worse things might get,” said Denis Nash, an epidemiologist at the City University of New York.
So far, “[w]There is not much we can do to predict how the current surge might develop, other than just waiting,” according to Atlantic. Last year, omicron’s thrust didn’t begin to grow rapidly until mid-December.
“We haven’t even got to January yet, so I really don’t think we’re going to find out [how bad this surge will be] for two months,” Kline said. Until then, “we just have to stay put and watch.”
Hospitals are overloaded with respiratory viruses
Even if this year’s winter wave of Covid-19 isn’t as large or severe as previous ones, hospitals will likely still be overwhelmed. Besides Covid-19, hospitals are also grappling with outbreaks of other respiratory viruses, including influenza and RSV.
According to a CNN analysis of HHS data, hospitals are currently fuller than they have ever been during the pandemic. Over the past two weeks, the number of hospital beds used nationwide has increased by 8 percentage points to more than 80%.
Throughout the pandemic, hospitals have been more than 70% full most of the time, but only reached 80% capacity at the height of the omicron surge in January. At the time, around a quarter of hospital beds were occupied by patients with Covid-19.
Now, Covid-19 patients make up only around 6% of hospital beds, while many other beds are occupied by patients hospitalized with other respiratory viruses, such as influenza or RSV in children.
For the week ending December 3, 25,906 patients were hospitalized with influenza, and the cumulative hospitalization rate, which is currently 26 per 100,000, is the highest for this period since the 2010-2011 influenza season.
“The [hospital bed capacity] the rates are higher because we’re seeing flu patients in many parts of the country and that’s brought a lot of older adults and some young children into hospitals,” said Nancy Foster, vice president of the quality and patient safety American Hospital Association. “Additionally, RSV is filling pediatric beds and cribs with patients who are sicker now due to the postponement of care during Covid-19, which required more intensive and complex care.”
“Workforce shortages have not only made it more difficult for hospitals, but have also reduced the number of patients who can be cared for in nursing homes and other post-acute care facilities,” Foster added. . “So patients are spending more time in hospitals, waiting to be discharged to the next level of care, and limiting our ability to get a bed to a patient who really needs to be hospitalized.”
According to Poland, patients who need help with severe Covid-19 or any other medical condition are more than likely “not to receive the same level of care as [they] would have without these surges.”
In a letter to the nation’s governors, HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra acknowledged that influenza and other respiratory viruses are “increasing the strain” on the nation’s health care systems. He also said the Biden administration “stands ready to continue to assist you with resources, supplies and personnel,” but refrained from formally declaring a public health emergency for the current respiratory virus outbreaks. (Tayag, Atlantic12/9 ; McPhillips, CNN12/9)