2023-06-04 09:11:29
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, recently wrote an article predicting that the Bitcoin bull market will start from the end of the third quarter to the beginning of the fourth quarter of this year. Attending the Podcast show more specifically predicts that Bitcoin will not be able to reach a record high of $70,000 this year, but it will be next year.
(Recap:Arthur Hayes shouted: Be patient, the “real Bitcoin bull market” will start in Q4）
(background supplement:What are the cryptocurrency “billionaires” investing in?Look at the wallets of Arthur Hayes, Justin Sun..）
addThe cryptocurrency market has been flat recently. Bitcoin has been fluctuating in the $27,000 range since early June. According to data from The Block Research, the current annualized volatility of Bitcoin is regarding 32%, which is a sharp drop from the historical average of 71%. , the current annualized volatility is even lower than Meta and Amazon stocks.
Bitcoin bull market will start at the end of Q3
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes wrote on the 2ndpredictthe real Bitcoin bull market will start in the late third quarter to early fourth quarter of this year, he gave the reason that, contrary to traditional monetary theory, due to the current debt and production output conditions, the increase in interest rates will lead to the increase in the amount of money And inflation is going up, not down.
Arthur Hayes believes that U.S. inflation will bottom out and start to rise slowly, which means the Fed may pause interest rate hikes in June, then resume raising interest rates in July, and by the end of August, the policy rate may be close to 6% , while higher interest rates increase the interest paid on RRP (reverse repurchase) and IORB (reserve interest rate) balances, which in turn increases the amount of money the Fed prints:
All these interest payments are effectively a stimulus package for the rich. What do wealthy asset holders do when they have more money than they need? They will buy risk assets, gold, bitcoin, AI technology stocks, etc. will all be the beneficiaries of this “wealth” printed by the government and distributed in the form of interest.
Bitcoin prospers when the money printing machine starts rolling!
It is estimated that Bitcoin will rise above 70,000 US dollars next year
Previously, when Arthur Hayes attended the Podcast program “What Bitcoin Did” last week, he made more specific comments on the price of Bitcoin.predicthe does not believe that Bitcoin will reach a record high of $70,000 this year, but it will have a chance next year, but then due to too many risk factors around the world, Bitcoin will peak in 2025 or 2026:
We’re going to have a halving in 2024, it’s going to be a good year, I don’t think bitcoin will hit $70,000 this year, but it will be next year, and then in 2025, 2026, bitcoin will skyrocket and then It’s Armageddon.
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