2024-01-14 23:46:00
It is worth mentioning that with the step he took this Friday, The monetary regulator managed to accumulate US$805 million in purchases in the last week and sum US$4,333 million in total during the first month of Milei. With these data, the reservations of the BCRA monetary authority are located in the US$23,976 million, well above the levels they had reached a few weeks ago, when they were around US$21 billion.
Stocks on imports and SEDI
“There is super stocks on imports, despite the rule change. For this reason, there is practically no private demand in the market and, in turn, Exporters are advancing sales within the framework of the program implemented by the Government driven by the sweetener of the formula (which allows part to be passed through the official and another through the Cash With Settlement, CCL). This has brought regarding the current temporary calm and lowering of the gap,” describes Fabio Rodríguez, economist and director of MyR Consultores a Scope.
Sergio Chouza, economist and director of Consultora Sarandí, For its part, it indicates that “the general resolution of December 26 of the Federal Public Revenue Administration (AFIP)which changed the Import System of the Argentine Republic (SIRA) by the Import Statistical System (SEDI) and the rule that favors the postponement of import payments for 30 days or more” are key for the BCRA to have managed to buy dollars in recent times”
Kick expirations
And, as detailed in the Eco Go economist Sebastián Menescaldi, the regulations establish that payments are made in installments. “That is to say, to import you can access 25% of the dollars every 30 days. This implies, for example, In an import of US$400,000 million in the month, the Central today saves almost US$140 million daily in payments”, he details.
This calculation is valid until January 30 and then that amount will be reduced by thirds in the next three months. In other words, as Menescaldi explains, “part of the dollars that the BCRA is buying is debt from the financial sector as working capital.” According to Eco Go estimates, In these four months it will be around US$6.8 billion that accumulated amount.
Chouza considers that it is “a correct decision in pursuit of normalizing flows and showing consolidation in the first days of Government”but warns that this measure implies “running the curvethat is, kick the flow forward one or four months.”
Liquidations that were waiting for the devaluation enter
On the other hand, Menescaldi mentions as another element that allows the Central Bank led by Santiago Bausili buy dollars in recent times: the fact that, Before the devaluation, many sectors did not liquidate exports waiting for that exchange rate jump to occur. “No one knew what was going to happen and they didn’t settle. So, There is a surplus of around US$2.5 billion that was pending liquidation and that is now coming in,” he points out.
Purchase of BCRA dollars: how long does the strategy last?
However, there is consensus among analysts that These factors are transitory and do not guarantee a long path of dollar purchases. forward. This is what Rodríguez puts it when he points out that “The recomposition of reserves that has been achieved since the new government took office is very much transitory.” and it is not yet the product of a normalization of the exchange market and foreign trade flows.”
According to his view, these factors that today are favorable for the purchase of dollars They will start to change around the end of January“foreshadowing more tensions in the market and difficulties for the BCRA.”
“Above all, The fact of kicking off the payment of imports and the income of the remainder of liquidations not previously carried out are transitory.”, warns Menescaldi, for his part. And he does not rule out that the first signs of this trend ending will begin to be seen. from this Monday, January 15.
“It is expected that next month the level of dollar income will drop because there is no substantive resolution of the malfunctioning of the exchange rate regime, but rather it is regarding patches to alleviate the moment. What was done was to buy time with a devaluation of magnitude, which gives competitiveness to our export sector despite the taxes for a time and, on the other hand, time was bought with the decision to defer payments,” says Chouza in a similar line.
Central Bank BCRA
The Central Bank will have problems maintaining the dollar purchase strategy.
Ignacio Petunchi
Also note that The spurious incentives generated by the gap, the distortions of a macroeconomy without anchor, in which dollarization is encouraged and not the demand for pesos, mean that an equilibrium in the balance of payments is not clearly seen. and from the commercial forward.
In this context, the economist considers that there may be a rebound in the flow of dollars this year, above all, due to the effect that there is going to be a drought, but consider that it will not be of magnitude. And, on the other hand, he warns that, “if Argentina becomes more expensive in dollars, while the rest of the world becomes cheaper, current account balances might be even more damaged.”
In this way, the market vision is that, Although it works, for the moment the implemented strategy is a provisional patch now, which implies a postponement of substantive decisions. Thus, as Chouza states, “the result, for the moment, is ephemeral.”
What the Government is doing is “holding out” until the beginning of the liquidation of the harvest, which occurs in Argentina from mid-March and beginning of April with greater force.. This year, without the drought, the countryside has a chance to recover following a very bad previous year, in which the drought caused US$20 billion less to enter the country.
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