2023-10-23 06:58:17
2023-10-23 14:58 United News Network 24 Hours Massa’s campaign poster.Photo/AFP
【2023. 10. 23 Argentina】
Unexpected Argentine presidential election: Despite 138% inflation, the economy minister still won the first round of voting
“Argentina has never experienced such severe polarization…” Argentina held the first round of voting in the presidential election on October 22. It was originally expected that the right-wing candidate Javier Milei would win the highest vote – before the election Millais has been leading in the polls, but following the first round of voting, current Economy Minister Sergio Massa came out on top with 36.3% of the votes, beating Millais with 30.2% of the votes.The unexpected results made the future of Argentina, which is suffering from inflation and economic deterioration, even more unpredictable – Milais’ political experience was only two years as a member of Congress, and he shouted “replacing the peso with dollars” Radical economic strategies attract large numbers of supporters; however, Massa’s victory shows that many Argentines are still uneasy regarding Milley, and the current government believes inPeronism, is still seen as a relatively stable option despite the country’s economic setbacks. There are huge differences in the policy lines of the two candidates. Ultimately, Argentina’s future direction will be decided in the second round of elections on November 19.
Millais and his “La Libertad Avanza” party won first place in Argentina’s August primaries to determine eligibility, with 30.04% of the vote, slightly ahead of other political parties. Later, during the election, Milais Always ranked first in the polls, he quickly attracted a large number of supporters with his radical economic policies and strong personal image – Milaiben is an economist who has worked at HSBC, a national think tank, etc., both at home and abroad in Argentina. He teaches at a university and has only two years of political experience as a member of the House of Representatives (elected in 2021). His candidacy as a political amateur caused a whirlwind.
Today, Argentina has experienced 14 months of deteriorating economic conditions. The rising inflation rate has soared to 138% in September 2023 compared with the same period last year. Argentina’s Torcuato Di Tella University even estimates that the inflation rate in the first half of 2023 The national poverty rate will reach 43%, and Argentina is now the world’s largest single debtor to the International Monetary Organization (IMF), with an outstanding debt of US$46 billion.
Massa, the current Argentine Minister of Economy, won 36.3% of the votes in the first round of presidential election voting. Photo/Ouxin… Massa’s supporter.Photo/Associated Press
In addition, the exchange rate of the Argentine peso has plummeted, and its foreign exchange reserves have also been exhausted. Due to the avalanche decline of the peso, the Argentine people have already turned to using and saving U.S. dollars, and are unwilling to keep the continuously falling peso in their hands, even if Peron The current communist government limits the amount of money that can be exchanged for U.S. dollars, which only makes people turn to the black market. Similarly, even if the government controls the exchange rate, the U.S. dollar exchange rate on the black market is already several times the official exchange rate.
Milley, who took advantage of the economic difficulties and rose to prominence, called for “economic dollarization.” He directly called the peso an excrement and advocated using the U.S. dollar to replace the peso as Argentina’s official currency, abolishing the central bank, and reducing the Argentine government. Spending will reach 15% of GDP, the number of ministries in Argentina’s central government will be cut from 18 to 8, the Ministry of Sports, Culture and Women will be closed, and the Ministry of Health and Education will be consolidated to reduce the size of the government.
Milai’s sudden emergence is like a backlash of Argentine people’s dissatisfaction with the elite and the government. The message he conveys to the people is simple: the ruling class composed of left-wing and right-wing politicians, plus bureaucrats, is ruined by corruption and the terrifying Qualcomm. The country has been destroyed, and the way to save Argentina is to slash the size of the government, abolish the peso and switch to the U.S. dollar. Millais himself also held up a chainsaw during the campaign to symbolize that he wanted to “cut off” the bloated government organizations, and held up a big gun. Zhang’s dollar bill prop.
And Milai’s appearance also has a strong personal style – he is known as the “Argentine Trump” with messy hair, wearing leather jackets and shouting the slogan “freedom”; contrary to the traditional street propaganda, Milai His campaign strategy focuses on TikTok, and he has made many shocking remarks. In addition to criticizing the peso, he also supports the legalization of human organ trafficking and attacks Pope Francis, who was born in Argentina, for “promoting communism”. Jesuits of Islamism”, “representatives of evil on earth”, questioning Argentinadirty warThe 30,000 missing persons during the period were exaggerated, claiming that the actual number was 8,753, and that his pet was a replica dog. His various remarks and actions have repeatedly occupied the media coverage in Argentina.
Millais held up a chainsaw during the campaign to symbolize his desire to “cut down” bloated government organizations. Photo/AP Millay votes in Buenos Aires.Photo/Associated Press
Originally, Milley had been leading the polls since the primaries. It was widely expected that Milley would win the next Argentine president. Milley, who calls himself an anarcho-capitalist, emphasized that he believed in unfettered free markets and unfettered power. restricting free trade and prioritizing private property and personal freedoms. His radical and even offensive remarks, as well as his almost blank political qualifications, make it difficult for the outside world to interpret the future policy of the Argentine government if he is elected. Why, and his team is mostly from academia or private companies, making the possible Milai government full of unpredictability.
Milley’s campaign promises are also full of contradictions. For example, he vowed to ax Argentina’s government departments to reduce government spending, but he also said that civil servants who were serving in the axed ministries would be reassigned rather than fired. This has triggered concerns regarding his personnel expenditures. How can government spending be reduced to 15% of GDP without reduction? He also advocated cutting energy subsidies, but said that “it will not directly affect the pockets of Argentines.” Due to the unpredictability and policy contradictions, the Financial Times quoted Argentine diplomats and other observers as worrying that if Milley leads the government, there will be an institutional crisis, and Milley may even trigger chaos within a year and become a short-lived president.
The results of the vote on October 22 were beyond everyone’s expectations. Current Economy Minister Massa won with 36.3% of the votes and ranked first. Millais ranked second with 30.2% of the votes. In addition, the center-right opposition candidate and former Security Minister Bourri Patricia Bullrich received 23.8% of the votes. Due to the rules of Argentina’s electoral system, if no candidate obtains 45% of the votes in the first round, or obtains 40% of the votes and beats other candidates by 10%, the two candidates with the highest votes must advance to the second round. Therefore, Rai and Massa will have a runoff election on November 19; their policy lines are completely different, making Argentina’s future path even more confusing.
Massa is a Peronist party that emphasizes nationalism and centralization“Renewal Front”(Frente Renovador) leader. Since 2023, he has used strong monetary intervention, relief and tax cuts of regarding 2% of GDP to try to curb Argentina’s economic decline, but he has been unable to stop the deterioration; in the August primary election , the Renaissance Front ranked only third in the vote. Massa’s campaign promise was also to stabilize the economy, but as the current Minister of Economy, can he convince the public? The answer may still be yes, because in addition to Massa’s first vote, the governor election in Buenos Aires state, which has one-third of Argentina’s population, was also won by the Peronist party candidate.
Milai holding up a US dollar bill prop during a campaign. Photo/Archyde.com Massa’s campaign poster.Photo/AFP
Peronism has dominated Argentina for regarding 40 years. Although some critics blame the government’s Peronist line for the country’s economic misery, many voters still seem to think Massa is a relative relative of Milais, who is radical and unpredictable. A safe choice. Some people are worried that if Massa loses the election, the changed government policies will cause the fares of public utilities such as trains and buses to rise sharply. Carlos Gutierrez, a 61-year-old voter interviewed by Archyde.com, said:
“Only Peronism can make it easier for the poorest of us to maintain a basic life.”
The voting results also showed the extreme polarization of Argentine society. 22-year-old student Nicolas Mercado expressed his support for Millais. He said:
“He is the only one who understands the situation in this country and knows how to save it.”
Voter Silvia Monto, 72, pointed out:
“We have never experienced such polarization.”
Silvana Dezilio, a 37-year-old Buenos Aires housewife, is more pessimistic and believes that no matter who wins, it will be difficult to see positive results. She said:
“All governments promise something and end up sinking us deeper. It seems unbelievable, but our situation is getting worse and worse. We just watch other countries overcome and for us it gets worse every day. Question.” Massa’s campaign poster.Photo/AFP
Text/Lai Yun
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